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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KCRP 171747
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1247 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key Messages:

▶  High risk of rip currents through Thursday morning

Conditions today and tomorrow will be fairly hot especially out
west. Heat indices will be approaching 105 degrees in the Rio Grande
Plains with elsewhere around 90 degrees. A high risk of rip currents
along the beaches will remain in effect through Thursday morning.
Buoy 19 was reporting 8 second swells around 5 ft. Guidance was
slightly underestimating the swell heights and the periods,
therefore it seemed reasonable to continue the high risk of rip
currents through at least Thursday morning. A chance for an isolated
shower/thunderstorm will exist this evening into tomorrow morning
and again around midday in the Western Brush Country. This will be
due to an influx of moisture which will increase PWAT values around
the 99th percentile for this time of year (1.6-1.8 inches).
Simultaneously, there will be some H7-H85 vorticity combining
with a boundary that will stall to the north around San Antonio
which could provide some forcing shower and thunderstorm
development. The chance of this will remain pretty low (<20%). &&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key Messages:

▶  Cold front this weekend with a Medium to High chance (50-75%) of
showers and thunderstorms

▶  Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Saturday for our northern
counties.

We open up the long term with an upper level ridge being suppressed
to our south as a H5 shortwave rotates through the region. After a
brief stretch of quasi-zonal flow aloft on Friday, we will see
several shortwave pass through over the course of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a surface low moving through Canada will extend a cold
front back across the Southern Plains. This boundary will sag south
through the end of the work week before stalling across the northern
part of the state Friday into Saturday.

As we head through the weekend, another H5 impulse will eject across
the Plains and give the boundary enough of a push to restart it`s
journey south. The latest timing remains fairly consistent with
FROPA Saturday into Sunday morning for South Texas. Ahead of this
boundary, persistent onshore flow will usher ample moisture across
the region. The combination of plentiful moisture, low level
convergence, and a shortwave aloft will warrant a 50-75% chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday morning. WPC
has included our northern tier of counties within a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. We look to hold onto some low end
rain chances through early next week as moisture lingers in the wake
of the front.

One last warm day is in store on Friday as high temps climb back
into the mid 80s along the coast to the upper 90s across the Brush
Country. Increased cloudiness/rain chances will knock a few degrees
off our highs on Saturday. Saturday night`s cold front will drop our
highs into the 70s on Sunday with lows dipping into the 50s for our
inland areas Monday morning. Cooler temps don`t last long as we warm
right back up early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Key Messages:

▶  Cold front this weekend with a Medium to High chance (50-75%) of
showers and thunderstorms

▶  Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Saturday for our northern
counties.

We open up the long term with an upper level ridge being suppressed
to our south as a H5 shortwave rotates through the region. After a
brief stretch of quasi-zonal flow aloft on Friday, we will see
several shortwave pass through over the course of the weekend.
Meanwhile, a surface low moving through Canada will extend a cold
front back across the Southern Plains. This boundary will sag south
through the end of the work week before stalling across the northern
part of the state Friday into Saturday.

As we head through the weekend, another H5 impulse will eject across
the Plains and give the boundary enough of a push to restart it`s
journey south. The latest timing remains fairly consistent with
FROPA Saturday into Sunday morning for South Texas. Ahead of this
boundary, persistent onshore flow will usher ample moisture across
the region. The combination of plentiful moisture, low level
convergence, and a shortwave aloft will warrant a 50-75% chance of
showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday morning. WPC
has included our northern tier of counties within a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. We look to hold onto some low end
rain chances through early next week as moisture lingers in the wake
of the front.

One last warm day is in store on Friday as high temps climb back
into the mid 80s along the coast to the upper 90s across the Brush
Country. Increased cloudiness/rain chances will knock a few degrees
off our highs on Saturday. Saturday night`s cold front will drop our
highs into the 70s on Sunday with lows dipping into the 50s for our
inland areas Monday morning. Cooler temps don`t last long as we warm
right back up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR conditions currently across all sites due to the ongoing
cloud cover is expected to continue through this afternoon.
Generally light to moderate southeast winds are expected and as
long as the clouds hold do not expect any significant wind gusts
this afternoon. Overnight conditions will become IFR with high
confidence in lower ceiling heights as opposed to fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue this morning and
persist through the remainder of the work week. A cold front will
move offshore Saturday night, leading to a moderate northeasterly
flow by Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead and along the front with a
moderate chance (30-50%) Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Rain chances begin to wane through the afternoon and evening hour.
Onshore flow returns early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Corpus Christi    85  73  87  73 /  30  10   0   0
Victoria          85  72  86  70 /  10  10   0  10
Laredo            95  75  98  73 /  20  10  10  10
Alice             89  72  93  71 /  30  20   0  10
Rockport          82  72  82  72 /  30  10   0   0
Cotulla           92  75  98  73 /  20  10  20  10
Kingsville        86  72  89  71 /  30  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  73  82  73 /  30   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...BF/80