097
FXUS64 KCRP 011132
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
632 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Message:

- Coastal flooding and rip currents are likely along the Middle
  Texas Coast today and tonight.

Buoy 42019 continues to report an easterly swell of 2-3 feet with
periods of 7-8 seconds this morning. While swell heights are
being accurately forecast by regional wave models, the observed
periods are running slightly higher than forecast. Swell periods
are forecast to remain steady through this evening before
decreasing. Local forecasting guidelines indicate that minor
coastal flooding remains likely during high tide this afternoon,
primarily driven by swell periods over 7 seconds. The increased
swells will also result in a High Risk of rip currents through
early Thursday morning.

Short term model guidance is in good agreement that a
conditionally unstable atmosphere characterized by MLCAPE greater
than 2000 J/kg will develop across South Texas by the early
afternoon hours. This conditional instability driven by
increasing low level moisture (with 00Z HREF mean PWAT above 1.5
inches) will support a medium chance (30-50 percent) of
precipitation from mid-morning through this afternoon. However, a
warm layer in the 850-700 hPa layer combined with a lack of
strong surface forcing will limit the likelihood of updrafts
developing that will be sufficiently strong enough for
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicates that the most likely
scenario for thunderstorms will be across the Victoria Crossroads
late tonight into early Thursday morning with a line of
thunderstorms moving southeast from Central Texas. The probability
of this scenario occurring currently looks to be low (less than
20%).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Large scale pattern with ridging to the east and troughing to the
west will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend.
With that, will see a continued parade of shortwaves across Texas.
Little convection is expected with these shortwaves as mid levels
dry air increases and surface moist layer becomes more shallow.  We
could still see convection developing over the Sierra Madre through
Saturday with a low chance of a few storms making it across the Rio
Grande into the area before they dissipate. Otherwise can`t rule
out an isolated light shower, but not expecting anything
organized.

Heading into the later half of the weekend and next week will see a
further decrease in deep layer moisture which will allow for a
warming trend in temperatures. Current guidance indicates a shift in
winds above the surface to more south and southwest. H85 temps
increase to above 25 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in
temperatures above 100 for at least the Rio Grande Plains and around
100 for much of the Brush Country. Will expect dewpoints to
decrease a bit in this period, to keep heat index values in
check, but with these unseasonably warm temperatures, the risk of
heat related impacts will increase next week, especially for those
more sensitive to heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail across South Texas through
the morning hours with showers increasing in coverage by the
afternoon. There will be a low to medium chance for isolated
thunderstorms, mainly near VCT,. The western TAF sites are
expected to improve to MVFR by this afternoon and there is a
medium chance for the coastal TAF sites to improve to VFR as well.
MVFR ceilings are expected to build back into the region this
evening into the overnight hours. Southeast winds are expected to
prevail through the entire forecast period with occasional gusts
over 20 knots during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Moderate onshore winds will result in seas increasing to 3 to 5
feet by Thursday. Winds and seas are then forecast to decrease
through Friday. A mainly weak to moderate onshore flow will
persist through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  75  88  76 /  20  10  10  10
Victoria          86  73  87  73 /  40  30  20  20
Laredo            94  76  94  75 /  30  10  10   0
Alice             89  74  90  74 /  40  10  20  10
Rockport          84  75  84  75 /  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           91  75  91  75 /  40  30  20   0
Kingsville        88  75  89  75 /  30  10  20   0
Navy Corpus       85  76  85  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...TWH/91