-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
617
FXUS64 KCRP 030529
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1229 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key messages:

- Moderate risk of rip currents tonight

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over the Brush Country
  Friday afternoon

The GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian deterministic NWP models predict the
Victoria Crossroads under the LFQ of a subtropical jet streak late
tonight/early Friday, and the ECMWF/Canadian place the western
CWA under the RRQ of this jet streak by late Friday afternoon.
Slightly above normal PWAT values predicted for much of the period
(deterministic GFS/NAM). The combination of the foregoing appear
to drive the timing/position of mainly isolated convection during
the period. Concur with the Marginal risk of severe for Friday
over the Brush Country, when considering the NAM deterministic
output of SBCAPE values 3000-4000 J/kg, and DCAPE magnitudes
1000-1500 J/kg late Friday afternoon/early evening for the
central/western CWA. The most recent spectral density and other
output from the 42019 buoy suggest swell periods around 7 seconds,
and the WaveWatch maintains this state overnight. Will retain the
Moderate risk for rip currents tonight, yet an upgrade to a High
risk may be needed if swell periods persistently reach 8 seconds.
Maximum Heat Index values may reach/exceed 105F over the Rio
Grande Plains Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of heat related impacts next week.

Mostly dry conditions will persist through the long term period.
However there is a low (10-30%) chance for a thunderstorm to impact
the Rio Grande Plains or northern Brush Country over the weekend.
Then it heats up as a more southwesterly subsident low level flow
develops over the Sierra Madre spreading over South Texas. This will
result in max air temperatures approaching 105 along the Rio Grande
by Tuesday and a record 110 degrees by Thursday.  Elsewhere
temperatures will warm from the lower 90s on Tuesday to the mid-
upper 90s by the end of the week. The risk of heat related illness
will increase to moderate to high by mid-week, especially for
vulnerable populations. While lower RH is expected out west to keep
heat index values near the temps, farther east heat index values
could exceed 110 degrees!

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into the morning hours across the
region. Ceilings will then improve to MVFR/VFR by the afternoon
hours. There will be a low chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across South Texas this afternoon and evening.
While the highest chance of convection will be across the western
half of the CWA, confidence in impacts at either COT or LRD was
too low to include a PROB30 with this forecast package. MVFR
ceilings are once again expected to build into the entire region
during tomorrow evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Moderate onshore flow expected during the late afternoon and
evening hours over the southern bays and southern nearshore
coastal waters. Otherwise, generally weak to moderate onshore
flow expected tonight through Friday night, in response to upper
level disturbances upstream. A weak to moderate onshore flow will
persist this weekend continuing through the upcoming work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  88  75  88 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          73  86  73  87 /  20  20  10   0
Laredo            77  98  75  95 /  10  20  20  10
Alice             75  92  74  91 /  10  20  10  10
Rockport          75  84  75  84 /  20  10  10   0
Cotulla           77  97  75  95 /  10  20  10  10
Kingsville        75  89  75  89 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       77  85  77  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...BF/80