Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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469 FXUS64 KCRP 010531 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1231 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Key Messages: Coastal Flooding and High Risk of Rip Currents will continue into tomorrow Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Quasi-zonal flow is expected to continue tonight through Wednesday night which should lead to generally quiet weather. A shortwave is expected to traverse across the region tonight and tomorrow, with the one tomorrow being the more significant one leading to our best chances for rain. The shortwave tonight is expected to be north of our CWA, however, some Hi-res models are showing the tail end of the vorticity sneaking into the Rio Grande Plains with a low chance to promote some thunderstorms. The shortwave tomorrow is expected to be a little bit stronger which when combined with an abundance of available moisture, will lead to low to medium chances for rain. Some Hi-res models are showing an MCS develop in the Hill Country tomorrow and sweeping into South Texas, however, confidence on that solution remains low at this time. Despite swell heights and periods finally beginning to decrease, they remain elevated as Buoy 42019 showing swell heights of 4.5-5 ft and periods of 8-9 seconds. With swell heights and periods remaining elevated and webcam across local beaches today continuing to show minor coastal flooding, did not feel comfortable letting the advisory expire tonight. These conditions will also lead to a continued risk of high rip currents. This will be especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find their way back to the Gulf. Warm temperatures are expected to continue tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values from the mid 90s to near 102 degrees. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Key Messages: Low chance (10-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts daily Predominantly zonal flow will persist across Texas into the upcoming weekend with shortwave disturbances combining with above normal moisture (PWATs 1.6 to 1.9") to bring daily low end chances for showers and thunderstorms. The limiting factor will be the lack of a surface boundary. However the sea breeze may provide that focus as it propagates inland from the coast during the peak of the afternoon/evening. Best chances for a shower or thunderstorm will be across the Rio Grande, Brush Country and northern coastal plains. ECENS continues to be the wetter solution with Total QPF greater than 1", while the GEFS is indicating about 1/3 of that amount. Conditions dry out for Sunday as a weak mid level ridge moves overhead. Otherwise, heat will continue to be our primary concern through the extended forecast with high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s and lows only dropping into the 70s. Max heat indices could approach 105 out west late in the week. Please remember to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks if outdoors for a prolonged period of time. Additional heat safety can be found at: weather.gov/safety/heat .Coastal Hazards...moderate onshore winds and wave periods of 7- 8 seconds Thursday/Friday may lead to a continuation of minor coastal flooding and increased risk of rip currents. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A mix of VFR/MVFR continues this evening, but is expected to become predominately MVFR across S TX by or after 06Z with LRD and COT being around 08Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon except from VCT to ALI where MVFR CIGs may persist. Isolated thunderstorms in Mexico near DRT is showing signs of weakening and is not expected to reach COT. There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but should generally stay mainly across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the weekend. There is a slight 10-20% chance for showers Wednesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 87 76 87 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 73 86 75 86 / 0 40 20 20 Laredo 76 94 76 96 / 20 20 20 20 Alice 74 89 75 91 / 0 30 10 20 Rockport 76 84 76 84 / 0 20 10 10 Cotulla 75 92 75 93 / 20 30 30 20 Kingsville 75 89 76 89 / 0 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 86 76 85 / 0 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCP LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...TE/81