280
FXUS64 KCRP 280512
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Based on latest trends at Buoy019 and the continued long swells
around 10 seconds and swell heights around 8 feet, have updated
the rip current risk for Sunday to a High Risk and extended the
Rip Current Statement through 7 PM Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk of Severe for the northern portions of the Brush
  Country Sunday morning and Victoria Crossroads during the day
  Sunday

- Minor coastal flooding through Sunday afternoon

- Strong winds are expected to linger overnight; potential need for
a Wind Advisory out west

-Isolated to scattered showers Sunday morning

A mid to upper level disturbance is moving across the Central Plains
today. This will allow for some associated shortwaves to move
through our area late tonight/Sunday morning. Some isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible across the region with a low chance
(<5%) for theses storms to become severe in nature along our
northern portions of the CWA (Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads). A surface low is expected to develop out west over the
Rio Grande which will enhance our pressure gradient over the western
portions of the region. Winds could stay elevated in response to
this which will allow for a low chance (~35%) for Wind Advisory
conditions over the Brush Country overnight. The caveat is there is
an inversion which will likely keep these winds (around 925mb) from
reaching the surface.

With these elevated winds and swell periods around 9-10 seconds,
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through 12Z
Monday. This in combination with the swell wave heights around 8-9
feet also prompted the extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory
through Sunday Afternoon.

Otherwise, tonight will be humid with lows in the 70s expected.
Tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 80s to the east with lower
90s out west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week

- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek

Mid Term (Monday through Tuesday)...With the 500 mb trough moving
east out of the region, flat ridging/zonal flow takes over for
Monday through Tuesday. With the SE sfc flow and the moisture moving
in from the Gulf (PW~1.50"), the SB CAPE get to around 2000-3000
J/kg, but the SB CIN is around 50-100 J/kg, so some moderate to
strong capping. So will continue with the 15-30% chance pops over
the region Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds too, will
follow a diurnal curve, with the sfc winds being weak to moderate
onshore (SE (120-140)) flow during the afternoon/evening hours, than
then diminishing overnight to start the next round of wind. The SE
wind will will help to continue to push long period swells up the
beach, so minor beach flooding and rip currents will continue.

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...High pressure nudges in
Tuesday night keeping the chance for showers and thunderstorms at
bay until Wednesday when the moisture and a series of small 500 mb
shortwaves move through south Texas to keep the low chance (15-30%)
for showers and thunderstorms for each afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR CIGs are spreading west with LRD and COT expected to lower
to MVFR between 06-09Z. VFR conditions are expected to resume for
COT and LRD by 20-22Z Sunday with MVFR conditions continuing
across the eastern areas through Sunday afternoon and evening.
There is a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms
moving into COT and LRD some time after 10-12Z, then moves east
toward ALI, CRP and VCT between 16-18Z and tapers by late
afternoon. The best chance of storms will be from COT to VCT with
less activity expected farther south away from the more favorable
conditions. Strong southeast winds this evening are expected to
decrease, but remain moderate with gusts up to 25kt remaining
possible overnight, especially for the CRP TAF site. Farther west,
winds have increased with gusts 25-30 knots, but are expected to
also decrease through 08-11Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will likely
persist through Sunday. Seas will remain elevated through Monday
morning, so the Small Craft Advisory will continue through Monday
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late
tonight and Sunday morning. The strong onshore flow will weaken
through Sunday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is then
expected to persist from Monday morning through the upcoming week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  90  75  89 /  10  30  10  20
Victoria          73  86  72  87 /   0  50  40  30
Laredo            75  94  73  95 /  10  40   0  30
Alice             74  92  73  92 /  10  30  10  30
Rockport          74  85  74  85 /  10  30  20  30
Cotulla           74  92  72  95 /  20  50   0  20
Kingsville        74  91  75  90 /  10  30  10  30
Navy Corpus       75  85  75  85 /   0  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TE/81