Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 210937 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 537 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will control the weather throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week. A gradual warming trend will ensue and allow temperatures to approach normal. A slow moving storm system will begin to affect the region by Tuesday. The good news is, no snow is expected this time around! && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... To start the day we have a freeze warning over the SERN 1/3 of the forecast area where the the growing season is officially underway. Now if only the weather will cooperate, it might start to feel like we are entering the last part of April. It will be a bright day through a few thin high clouds as the ridge builds over head. With a light breeze temperatures will rise up into the 50s in most locations. This will still be a few degrees below normal, but will feel nice compared to what we have seen so far this month. Fair and chilly weather will continue overnight, but in the growing season counties I plan to hold off on any further headlines as lows are expected to be just mild enough to preclude widespread frost/freeze issues. The day shift can fine tune the temperatures if it looks colder than what is in the forecast at this hour. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... Another nice day is on tap for Sunday with highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will control the pattern through Monday before we start to see the weather head downhill once again. Mornings will remain chilly, but afternoon temperatures will moderate close to seasonal normals with readings reaching the 60s in most places by Monday. The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the region on Tuesday and continue for much of the new work week. An upper low is just beginning to emerge out of the southern Rockies, and it will track east under the upper ridge that extends from the Midwest into Canada. As the low emerges onto the plains it takes on a sort of rex- blocky appearance as it crawls eastward, and latest model runs slow this system down from previous timing so grids adjusted accordingly. Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low as it moves into toward the east coast, reforming the long wave trough over the eastern US by the end of the week. The slow moving nature of the system suggests once the rain moves in, it will remain in the forecast for several days. The first of the rain looks to arrive during the day Tuesday with periods of rain continuing into Thursday. By later Thursday into Friday the GFS/GEFS start to disagree with the ECMWF/ECENS on the strength and timing of the lead shortwave. The GFS/GEFS suggest showery weather continuing for much of Friday while the ECMWF/ECENS suggest Friday will be dry and rather mild. Bigger disagreements arise for the weekend with the GFS showing a potent upper low and cold front that would be accompanied by an unseasonably cold airmass, and reintroduce the chance of snow showers in the cold blustery post cold frontal flow. That`s too far out to inspire real confidence and is just beyond the end of the untended forecast, so no mention of the S word is in the forecast as yet. High temperatures are expected to remain slightly colder than normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far this month. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Some fog now at BFD. Not seeing any low clds yet. Minor adjustments made to 09Z TAFS. Other than some patchy fog the next few hours, looking at dry and mild conditions into Monday, as high pressure builds into the area. Outlook... Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM. Wed...Rain/low cigs.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ026>028-035- 036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Martin

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