Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 220535 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 135 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift southeast across the region over the next couple of days. Developing low pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during the middle of next week. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the northeast conus. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Thin broken high cirrus continues to stream overhead at mid evening. Clouds will be thicker over western and central sections, while the thickest cloudiness remains south of the WV/MD panhandles and Mason Dixon line. These clouds will keep the frost away from the Laurels. Would not even be surprised to see some radar returns/virga as a spot of enhanced lift moves along the PA/MD border later tonight. However, no need for a mention of sprinkles as it is so dry below 10kft. The longer conversation was over frost advy or not in the middle Susq. Light wind for sure. The clouds are the wild card. The SC Mtns and Lower Susq should be largely frostless tonight as either the clouds keep the temps up. Will continue to just mention frost in fcst wx grids for the middle Susq and Ridge/Valley region between State College and Harrisburg, but not take the advy step.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Another nice day is on tap for Sunday with highs expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. The high clouds should slink southward, but some cu may pop up in the Srn Mtns. Sun PM seems clear/fair again with even less of a worry for frost. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will bring central Pa one more day of fair weather Monday, then conditions will head downhill once again as low pressure lifts northeast along the east coast. Med range guidance in fairly good agreement with timing of low, indicating the bulk of the rain will come Tue PM into Wed AM. Blend of model qpf indicating the most likely rainfall from this system will be in the neighborhood of a half inch for most of the forecast area. Expect the steady rain to taper off by Wed evening, as surface lifts into New England. However, shortwave and associated cold front diving southeast from the Grt Lks is likely to bring another round of showers Wed night into early Thursday. 12Z NAEFS showing additional shortwave energy carving out a deepening upper trough over the Grt Lks and northeast states late in the week into next weekend. Thus, expect a return to unsettled weather and a downturn in temperatures as we head into next weekend. Operational model 8h temps even indicate snow showers are a possibility over the mountains by next weekend, but have leaned toward the more conservative NAEFS at this point, which indicates chilly rain showers more likely. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Looking at some mid and high clouds today into late Monday afternoon. 06Z TAFS adjusted some. Earlier discussion below. VFR conds to prevail into Monday with a thin veil of cirrus slowly sagging further southward as high pressure builds into the area. No impediments to flight ops are foreseen in the near term. A slow-moving storm system will affect the area midweek. Cig restrictions may slide northward into JST late Monday night, with expanding ceiling restrictions over the west Tue - and areawide Tue night into Wed night in rain. Outlook... Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely PM from S-N. Wed-Thu...Rain/low cigs.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Martin/RXR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.