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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 161955
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
355 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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-Periods of rain Wednesday-Friday with limited/no flood risk
-Weekend cooling trend; monitoring frost/freeze potential
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Only the high clouds are around now, and they will take a little
while to thicken up. Warm advection will finally bring numerous
SHRA developing over and moving into the wrn mtns. Temps will
dip into the 30s again in the NW, but won`t be quite cold
enough for any frost.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Rain will spread across the entire CWA from W to E in the
morning. It may actually blossom more in the central counties
than ends up falling over the west early in the morning. Only
widely sct SHRA will be around for much of the area in the aftn.
The most will be in the NE. Overall daytime QPF looks well than
less 0.25".

A strong shortwave brings SHRA/TSRA in from the upper OH Valley
Wed evening. Timing looks poor for SVR wx and the progressive
and relatively light intensity of the rainfall should keep any
flooding to a bare minimum. WPC MRGL risk on the ERO for Day2
looks like a stretch. HREF PMMs for 48hrs is only 0.25-0.75". A
little cooler air moves in behind that shot of convection, but
it won`t be too noticeable a change since the temps should be
kept down Wed due to the rain happening in the middle of the
day.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will pass through on Friday before stalling out to
the south for the weekend into early next week. Showers and
potentially a thunderstorm are possible Friday with the frontal
passage, though rainfall generally looks to be light as the
front pushes through fairly quickly. Ensembles suggest that
rainfall will generally be in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with
the highest amounts expected across the western mountains.

Canadian high pressure will approach the region behind the front
into early next week while a series of disturbances track along
the boundary that is stalled to our south. There are significant
timing differences in the models with regard to these
disturbances, but each will bring at least a chance of showers
to the area. Some frost will also be possible Saturday and
Sunday night, as light winds and mainly clear skies will support
temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

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More nice weather for flying into the late night hours. Clouds
lower into MVFR over JST and BFD after the rain starts around or
just before sunrise. The first patch of showers/rain will cross
through the airspace through the morning, and may taper to
nothing for a brief time before the next volley of sct SHRA
later in the aftn. The bulk of the terminals will stay VFR on
cigs, but dip to MVFR at times due to the rain. More SHRA/TSRA
approach from the west in the late evening, and will be
stronger/heavier than the daytime stuff. That should dip the
visbys and cigs into IFR for brief periods Wed night and early
Thurs.

Outlook...

Thu...Post-fropa wrly flow. MVFR cigs sct SHRA NW, VFR SE.

Fri...CFROPA. Occnl dips to IFR.

Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff/Bauco
AVIATION...Dangelo