Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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013 FXUS61 KCTP 251831 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 231 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic will produce scattered showers today. High pressure will move in tonight and dry things out for Thursday. The weather will remain unsettled as the pattern stays active into the first half of the weekend. A stretch of fair, dry weather will start Sunday. Temperatures will warm nicely next week as high pressure floats across from Canada, but then sets up as a Bermuda High and turns the wind out of the south. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest Radar has two lines of showers moving through central and western PA. These showers will slowly move to the NE as the afternoon continues. Another light is slowly moving northward across the Mason Dixon line into SE PA. Latest HRRR has these lines continuing to the east and fading between 02Z to 06Z. The upslope into the Alleghenies and Laurels will keep a few showers around into the night, The upper level system will lift into the NE by tomorrow morning. Cloudy skies will continue tonight into tomorrow though the clouds will keep minimum temperatures around normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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Skies will begin cloudy tomorrow and slowly improve as the day continues. Northwesterly flow will keep winds gusty through the first half of the afternoon with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph possible. Weak high pressure will build into the region through the latter half of tomorrow which will bring clearing skies Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures Thursday will be slightly below normal due to cold air advection due to FROPA and the brisk northwesterly flow.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... All the models agree that a weak and fast-moving sfc low will zip through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. The eventual rain shield and northwestward extent of it is in question. Have tempered the POPs a little as the EC and NAM both are drier this cycle. The highest POPs will be over the SE, and least along the northern border. An upper trough just moving into the PAC NW will arrive sometime early in the weekend, perhaps not too far behind the weak system for Friday. This will keep it unsettled into Sat. Big anticyclone strengthens as it drops down from the great white north. It will benefit from a giant upper ridge which will amplify as next week begins. The high moves to a very favorable spot for PA - centered along or just off the NC coast. The warm return flow will lead to a nice change from the dreariness of the next few days. But before the warm, there will be a frost/freeze risk Monday morning. This is also thanks to the big sfc high being centered overhead at that time. Temperatures will then trend notably warmer with readings in the 70s/approaching 80F in some locations by next Tuesday as the Bermuda high exerts a positive influence on the region. An extended period of dry and a green up which is only just beginning over much of Central PA could spell fire wx troubles next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As per the above discussion, lack of instability and diurnal heating, will keep thunder out of the TAFs this afternoon. The weak SFC flow from the east southeast will keep the upslope flow for most of the region. This coupled with the moist upper levels will allow the low CIGS to continue through the most of the afternoon. Several lines of showers along the approaching trough and corresponding front will bring light precipitation and possible IFR cigs to BFD and JST this afternoon. Possible shower activity will fade as the evening continues with it ending between 00Z to 06Z. MVFR to IFR cigs remain probable tonight into tomorrow morning before the dry NW flow Thursday morning, and a building ridge Thursday afternoon erode all ceilings. Northwesterly flow will keep winds gusty from around sunrise Thursday through Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 20 to 25 mph are expected. Outlook... Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...Areas of rain with low cigs etc. Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns. Sun...Reductions possible NW Mtns.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Ceru SHORT TERM...Ceru LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Ceru/Martin

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