Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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186 FXUS61 KCTP 200022 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 822 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania tonight, with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Sunday. The region will stay on the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 23Z radar loop showing scattered convection across eastern Ohio and western Pa ahead of shortwave lifting out of the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, cool stable airmass remains entrenched east of stationary front across central/eastern Pa. Highest POPs overnight will be between 00Z-03Z across the western counties, where earlier sunshine has resulted in some modest instability. Although surface front will remain hung up along the Appalachians tonight, models indicate a bit of elevated instability developing further east across central/eastern Pa, so will include the chance of a shower/tstorm associated with passage of shortwave later tonight. Shortwave and associated showers should have exited the eastern counties by around 07Z. However, upsloping flow and a nearly saturated 0-2km layer support the idea of lingering drizzle across the Allegheny Plateau late tonight. With the continuation of mainly overcast skies and an active southerly breeze don`t expect temperatures to drop off much tonight, remaining generally in the 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A dying cold front will push south across the region Sunday, bringing the chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the southern counties. Although Sunday will start off rather murky, model soundings indicate increasing sunshine everywhere, as low level moisture mixes out across the south and a drier northwest flow filters in across the north. The return of sunshine should push temperatures close to seasonal norms, ranging from 70 over the north to around 80 in the south. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... After being suppressed to our south early next week, the chances for showers will increase once again Monday as moisture on the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge creeps back into the region as an old frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front. Diurnal nature of convection will bring mention mainly over the SW third of CWA for mainly afternoon showers /thunderstorms. Interestingly, GFS indicating a ribbon of drier air sliding across the north (ahead of moisture return) just off the surface that should mix down midday over the northeast and could drop dewpoints into the lower 40s at KIPT for several hours. Showery forecast sticks around Monday night into Tuesday before drier air makes a push in from the NW starting Wednesday. Tuesday looks potentially cooler than current guidance with clouds/showers around, esp over the southern half of CWA. So undercut MOS by a couple degrees. From there it looks like the period form Wednesday through Friday will feature some rare (of late) rain-free conditions, before the chance for a pop-up shower or storm becomes returns for Sat. Temps look to climb into the 70s each day, with Saturday the warmest as high range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The coolest morning will be Friday with valleys of the northern mountains dipping into the mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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00Z TAFS sent. Low clouds were across the area east of the mountains all day. Some clearing across the far west. While most of the area is stable, more in the way of heating to the west, has resulted in some showers and storms. While the activity will die down overnight, some thunder will be possible at JST and BFD. The main issue overnight into Sunday morning will be the IFR conditions over much of the area. Expect things to improve by late morning across most of the area. Should be a decent amount of sun, as a northwest flow of less humid air works in. Thus expecting VFR conditions across the area by late morning. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Variable conditions with showers and thunderstorms at times. Thu...AM Fog. Otherwise VFR/no sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/La Corte NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Martin

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