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214
FXUS61 KCTP 012350
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain
 and thunderstorms Sat/Sun

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern
Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight.
However, the parent shortwave and best forcing will pass well
north of the state and moisture return ahead of the front is
meager. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus
accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the
northern counties.

Large dewpoint depressions going into the evening, combined
with a light southwest breeze, will likely preclude fog
formation. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo
in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak
readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper
50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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The dying cold front is progged to settle to just south of the
Mason Dixon Line by Thursday afternoon, as the associated
shortwave passes off the New Eng coast and upper level ridging
builds over PA. Low-pwat air flowing into the state should
result in mainly sunny skies and modeled 850mb temps of 12-14C
translate to expected highs ranging from the mid 70s over the N
Mtn, to the mid 80s in the southern valleys, some 10-15 degrees
above average for early May. Low level convergence and higher
humidity is noted in the vicinity of the front over the southern
tier Thursday afternoon. However, a weak capping inversion and
very dry air above 800mb suggests any convection is very
unlikely.

Very dry air above a weak inversion in the forecast soundings
support undercutting NBM dewpoints Thursday afternoon over the
central and northern part of the forecast area. We`ve used a
blend of the NBM and the much lower numbers obtained from the
MixedDewpoint Tool.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night will remain dry and mild. Easterly flow begins
to take hold on Friday, as high pressure noses down the eastside
of the Appalachians. This should result in cooler temperatures
Friday, especially across eastern PA. This setup could also
favor low clouds into the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley
Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the
Midwest into the Commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied
by showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring
drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching
warm front looks to bring increasing likelihood for a return of
clouds and showers/storms for Tuesday and now Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There could be a few high and mid-level clouds passing overhead
overnight, as a weak area of low pressure passes to our north
and pushes a weak/dry cold front into the area. A light SWerly
breeze (5-10 kts) will persist across the western highlands
overnight, while winds should largely become light/variable
southeast of the Allegheny Front. There could be a bit of valley
fog in the central valleys, and have maintained a hint of this
in the IPT TAF.

An upper ridge will build overhead on Thursday, producing
a sunny day with widespread VFR conds. Sfc winds will become
NWerly, and could gust 15-20 kts by aftn.

Outlook...

Thu night-Fri AM...Predominantly VFR.

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east
w/ brief reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected. Reductions
likely.

Mon...AM fog/clouds poss W. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations
on Monday:

SITE        2024 OBS     PRVS RECORD
Altoona          86F     83F (1956)
Bradford         82F     76F (1984)
Williamsport     89F     86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year,
almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May
11th).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert