Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 260209 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1009 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak storm system will continue to move up along the NJ coast and into New England overnight. High pressure will move in for tonight and Thursday before another weak low begins to affect the region Friday into Saturday. A stretch of fair, mild and dry weather will start Sunday as high pressure builds into the forecast area.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Disorganized showers cover portions of the forecast area, with a thin line of the most developed showers just moving through Schuylkill County as of 10PM. Further west we have just some lighter showers or sprinkles. The upper trough is moving into my western zones and the the HRRR shows the showers continuing to dry up as the support weakens. The upper level system will pass by to the NE by tomorrow morning allowing drier air to make inroads from the west. The mostly cloudy skies will will keep minimum temperatures around normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Skies will begin cloudy tomorrow and slowly improve as the day continues. Northwesterly flow will keep winds gusty through the first half of the afternoon with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph possible. Weak high pressure will build into the region through the latter half of tomorrow which will bring clearing skies Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures Thursday will be slightly below normal due to cold air advection due to FROPA and the brisk northwesterly flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Will be tracking a weather system moving through the area Thu night and Friday raising pops. This is ahead of the next trough that will be over the area for the weekend. Will keep pops in the forecast through Saturday when surface pressure rises and drier air moves in for the second half of the weekend. This is all ahead of a rising heights and more ridging setting up for the region. Look for temperatures finally rising above average and real spring weather arriving next week with many areas finally seeing a substantial greenup. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 1003 mb surface low was located just to the northwest of KACY at 00Z Thu and moving NNE. The departure of this low combined with a cold front pushing east from the Western Mtns of PA this evening will lead to mainly VFR conditions across the Susquehanna Valley, MVFR conditions over the Central Mtns, and IFR with ocnl LIFR over the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands of PA (KJST and KBFD). Descending portion of a 60 kt mid-level jet wrapping into a compact center of low pressure aloft (near KBUF) will transport some moderately gusty NW winds to the surface overnight and Thur morning. Sustained winds should be in the 12-16kt range and gusts capped at 23-25kts beginning in the west early this evening, and across the Susq Valley around or after midnight. The moderately gusty northwest wind will continue through at least early Thursday afternoon, before diminishing quickly late in the day. VFR will prevail over the Susq Valley late tonight and Thursday, and become the dominant flying conditions across the Western Mtns by late Thu morning. Outlook... Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Mainly VFR elsewhere early, then widespread VFR in the afternoon. Fri...Areas of rain with low cigs etc. Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns. Sun...Reductions possible NW Mtns. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte/Ceru SHORT TERM...Ceru LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru

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