Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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797 FXUS61 KCTP 241413 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1013 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will remain over the northeast conus this weekend, then lift out early next week as ridging builds in from the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push through the region during the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Mid morning GOES-16 Clean IR loop indicates decreasing cirrus streaming ESE across western portions of PA extending through the Laurel Highlands. The remainder of central PA is clear. Diurnal heating, combined with cold temps aloft, will yield increasing cumulus by this afternoon closest to upper level cold pool over northeast sections. A shortwave diving southeast across New England will push a cold front southward across the region during late afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out a few flurries accompanying this feature across the mountains north and east of KIPT. Otherwise, today will be a dry and chilly day for late March. Mixing down model 850mb temps of around -6C yield expected high temps from the mid 30s along the NY border, to the mid 40s over the southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A shot of very cold air for late March will overspread the region in wake of cold front tonight on a northerly flow. Dry air and low inversion heights will limit the moisture flux from Lk Ontario, but still expect some stratocu to reach into the mountains of northern Pa overnight. Elsewhere, expect a mainly clear night. NBM/Superblend indicate lows ranging from the low teens over the highest terrain of northern Pa, to the mid 20s over the Lower Susq Valley. Central Pa should be within a region of large scale subsidence Sunday, west of potent shortwave diving southeast across New England. Mainly sunny and chilly conditions expected for most of the forecast area, although scattered afternoon cumulus are expected over the eastern counties, closest to upper trough over New England. The pool of coldest 850mb temps will be over southern Pa Sunday afternoon, so expect the lowest temps relative to normal over that part of the state. Model 850mb temps support highs ranging from the mid 30s over the Laurel Highlands, to the mid 40s across the Middle Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... By early next week, all model guidance shows upper level ridging building into the region, supporting a high confidence forecast of fair weather and moderating temperatures. 00Z NAEFS and ECENS support a chance of rain showers during the middle of next week, especially over northwest Pa, associated with a dying cold front working in from the Grt Lks. A better chance of rain showers will likely come late in the week, as deepening trough over the northern plains spawns a wave of low pressure on stalled front over the Southern Mississippi Valley Thursday. This low is currently progged to lift northward through western Pa Friday, with trailing cold front crossing central Pa Friday night. Surface ridge wedged east of the Appalachians and associated cold air damming will slow the moderation in daytime temps next week. However, do expect readings to recover to near normal by late week, as low level cold air is scoured out ahead of approaching cold front. ECME MOS indicating highs mainly in the 50s by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No changes to the 12Z TAF package. A dry northerly flow of air will prevail across central PA the next few days. A few clouds from time to time. Outlook... Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected, though a few periods of MVFR are possible across the northern and western mtns of PA Sat night into Sunday. Wed...Thickening clouds with a likelihood of rain showers. Widespread MVFR Cigs likely developing. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Martin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.