Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 270243 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1043 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak storm system entering Virginia will move northeast along the coast Friday and into New England Friday night. An upper air disturbance will swing into the region from the Great Lakes Saturday and early Sunday. A stretch of fair weather with a warming trend will start Monday as high pressure builds over the Atlantic Coast. Above normal temperatures are likely for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High clouds continue to increase ahead of the next storm system currently over the SERN states beginning to eject off to the NE. The latest HRRR shows some showers reaching far SRN PA by around midnight, but the bulk of the rain is expected to hold off until just a few hours before sunrise. This timing looks reasonable as the first echoes begin to show up on our radar south of the Mason-Dixon line. Overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s over the north to mid 40s south will be near to a bit above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Rain will overspread the SERN 2/3 or so of the forecast area by mid to late morning. Steady rain will taper off to scattered showers in the afternoon as the lead shortwave shears out to the NE of the state. QPF will not be terribly impressive, but will be fairly widespread. Highs will average in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A shot of arctic air will move into the area Saturday night and Sunday with 8H temps near -10C and 1000-500 thickness less than 530dam. The consistency across the models is pretty good with this mass field result, so confidence in cold temps and a gusty NW wind is high. The lake/8H temp difference will support SHSN at Saturday night/Sun AM across the far north and west. The fcst not bad, main change was to up winds longer on Monday, and lower dewpoints some Sunday into Monday, given the winds aloft and airmass source. With some clouds and a breeze Sunday night, this will help taper the risk of frost early Monday across the region. Will still be too breezy early Monday for burning brush and leaves. Better chance for that after Monday. Temperatures moderate Tuesday into Thursday, as high pressure moves east of the area. Given how dry it is over portions of the Great Plains, I did not rush higher dewpoints into too fast, given that as the source region of the warm up. Green up is largely controlled by nights with mild temperatures and higher dewpoints at night than we have seen. Only night that way was back in February. Need to stay above 50 degrees to get much response from the grass and many trees. Looking at some showers late Thursday, as the cold front moves into the area. Mean trough tries to kick back in after this warm up. Some hints it could be wet for several days, especially if the 12Z EC is correct. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will prevail through daybreak across much of Pennsylvania with cloud bases lowering from 25 KFT AGL to 8-10 KFT AGL around 08Z Friday. The exception will be over the southern few layers of counties, where a MVFR Nimbostratus deck (and the leading edge of a large area of light rain) will move in from the south during the predawn hours on Friday. Low pressure lifting up the eastern seaboard will likely spread rain and generally MVFR (to briefly high end IFR) Cigs and MVFR to VFR vsbys across roughly the SE half to two thirds of the state during the mid to late morning, and the mainly light rain will continue through the late morning hours Friday across Scent PA and the Middle Susq Valley, and into the mid afternoon hours over the Middle Susq Valley and Ncent Mtns. Outlook... Fri...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly eastern Pa. Sat...Showers, especially early. Sun...Breezy. AM low cigs/flurries possible W Mtns. Mon...No sig wx expected. Breezy early. Tue...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Lambert

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