Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 171815 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 215 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance will will swing though the region today and this evening. Developing low pressure in the Mississippi Valley will track east across Pennsylvania Wednesday night and early Thursday, then high pressure will work into the region late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shortwave rotating through base of the upper trough is causing an increase in snow shower activity moving out of western PA. Robust lift under the left exit of a mid level jet streak is helping support briefly heavy snow showers. There could be a quick coating to an inch or two possible in a few places with some of the more robust showers. Based on time of day and the high sun angle, not too concerned about slippery travel at this time. Over the lower Susq Valley, it will be warm enough that the snow showers stand a good chance of mixing with or being just plain rain or sprinkles. The shortwave will move off to our east this evening, allowing rising heights aloft and drier air at all levels to move back into the region, bringing an end to the snow shower activity. Despite a very cold April to date, the growing season has technically begun over the lower Susq Valley. With lows around freezing or even a few deg colder, we have issued a Freeze Warning for the counties from Franklin east to Lancaster and north to include Dauphin and Lebanon. Elsewhere the overnight lows will average about 25-30 deg.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
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A brief period of fair weather can be expected for most of Wednesday, as a low amplitude ridge races east. The return of partly to mostly skies will result in milder temperatures, but still below average. Clouds will increasing late in the day, with the chance of showers reaching my far western counties by evening, as yet another shortwave takes aim at PA.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Passage of low pressure will likely bring a period of rain Wednesday night, followed by possible snow showers over the mountains, as upper trough comes through Thursday. We don`t expect any significant accumulations, but as we enter mid April, the prospects for snow are less than welcome. Past Thursday we foresee a break of dry weather into early next weekend as energy reloads over the southwestern U.S. allowing weak upper ridging to build over the eastern part of the country. Yet another upper low in this busy pattern looks to drop into the deep south toward the end of the period...possibly spreading some precipitation toward our region for the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold gusty WNW flow with MVFR/VFR and frequent snow showers across the western 1/3-1/2 of the airspace will continue into the evening hours before drier air brings improving conditions. A few heavier snow squalls through evening will bring brief reductions in visibility to near airfield minimums, especially at BFD/JST. Low VFR should prevail across the southeast 1/3 of the airspace with brief restrictions possible in passing snow/rain showers. Winds from 260-290 degrees 10-20kts with gusts 20-30kts will continue overnight. Snow showers will taper off this evening with mainly dry conditions developing. Any sub VFR conditions at BFD will improve early, otherwise Wednesday will see widespread VFR with a diminishing wind. Another period of rain/snow is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Outlook... Fri-Sat...No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ036-057- 059-063>066.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...Gartner AVIATION...La Corte

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