Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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717 FXUS61 KCTP 230933 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 533 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... One more day of dry weather with temperatures more like we expect this time of year. A slow moving area of low pressure will begin to affect the region overnight, and it will stay unsettled for most of the upcoming workweek. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the eastern US bringing the potential for showers and a continuation of below normal temperatures into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Nighttime blended imagery shows high clouds beginning to encroach on far SWRN PA. The nearest rain is over KY, so while high clouds will slowly increase today, it will be another mild and dry day before things head downhill overnight. High temperatures averaging in the 60s to day will actually be near to slightly above normal for a change. Rain will likely reach my SWRN zones before midnight and continue to slowly spread NE into the Central Mountains through Tuesday morning. Highs look to be about 10 deg lower than today in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... The slow moving upper low will crawl eastward under the Rex Block reaching the central Appalachians/SRN Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. With the upper low weakening, the surface reflection is progged to be a rather anemic low which will lead to a forecast of high POPs but generally light QPF. I just worded for periods of mainly light rain overspreading the entire forecast area before the day is over. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The pattern is expected to become complex and unsettled as the upper low opens up and begins to shear out through the Mid Atlantic states. A series of waves upstream are made to reinforce and help develop a large scale trough over the eastern US as we move through late week and into next weekend. The details start to diverge as early as Wed when the EC/ECENS follow the lead shearing shortwave with a potent closed upper low that is made to move through the area Thursday with showers for most of the CWA. The GFS/GEFS show a flat upper ridge traversing the region yielding a dry and mild day. I looked at the GEFS and leaned closer to the SuperBlend POPs which show a dry Thursday afternoon. By Friday, the old differences remain with the EC products making for a dry mild day, and the GFS families suggesting at least a small chance of showers. It all leads to a low confidence forecast as we move into the extended range. The latest guidance does agree that it will be cooler over the upcoming weekend as the upper trough slides east. Good to note the NAEFSBC hustles the weekend trough east bringing a fast return to rising heights and milder air for next week. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clear skies and VFR conditions will be the rule today. No big changes to the 09Z TAF updates. A very complex weather pattern setting up by mid week. Earlier discussion below. High pressure over Pennsylvania will drift slowly southeast over the next 24 hours, ensuring VFR conditions across central Pa through today. Winds will be very light early today, but pick up a bit by late morning and early aft. Bukfit soundings indicate there will be southeasterly gusts of 15-20kts this afternoon in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with slightly lighter winds further north and east. Outlook... Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely. Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west. && .CLIMATE...
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As of midnight Sunday night, April 2018 is in the top 10 coldest on record. While milder conditions are expected this week, it would take several abnormally warm days to turn the trend around.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Martin CLIMATE...Martin

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