Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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287 FXUS61 KCTP 200029 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 829 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will build into the area for the next 4 or 5 days. After a cold day on Friday, there will be a gradual warming trend over the weekend which will continue through the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/... Post-frontal flow is taking over with very dry air/dewpoints arriving as expected. Gusts into the 30s still possible this evening in the Laurels, but the wind should get less gusty as the night progresses. GOES-E shows a neat view of two distinct layers of clouds perpendicular to each other over Central PA. The lower deck is being scoured out. Other than some widely sct SHSN or flurries NW this evening/early tonight, it will be dry. Will not mention any accums. && .SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Wind keeps up, but gets less gusty overnight. This creates a dilemma for overnight temp forecast. The mixed atmos will keep the temps from bottoming out. However, the overall brute-force cooling by the airmass arriving will drop temps in the SE to near or slightly below freezing. Only the metro/urban areas will stay above freezing. Some sheltered valleys may get into the u20s. The upper trough swings totally out on Friday with NW flow left for the day. This will keep it much colder than normal for Friday. Wind stays up in the teens during the day. Good news is that a giant sfc high pressure area over the upper plains/midwest slides in and begins to modify under the April sun this weekend. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday and beyond, there will be a welcome break of lighter wind, sunshine and milder temps as a large area of high pressure moves out of the midwest. Another series of upper lows look to move across the south and into the eastern US next week. This may spread some precipitation toward our region into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A slow moving and strengthening storm system over the Canadian Maritimes will bring breezy conditions to central Pennsylvania through Friday. Northwest winds will abate a bit tonight, but Bufkit soundings support gusts of around 25kts returning by late Friday morning. Low level moisture ascending the Appalachians will produce predominantly MVFR cigs over the northwest mountains (KBFD) tonight, while areas further south along the Appalachians (KJST) may experience tempo MVFR. Elsewhere, confidence in VFR conditions is high overnight. Any MVFR cigs should mix out by late morning, with widespread VFR a near certainty by Friday afternoon, as high pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Outlook... Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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