Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 131147 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 747 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A potent winter storm storm will track from the mid Atlantic coast to New Foundland by late tonight. Cold northwest flow will produce lake effect and upslope snow showers with several inches of accumulation expected over the Alleghenies. Cold and unsettled conditions will last through Friday with scattered mountains snow showers north and west. Drier conditions will try to visit the region Friday night into Saturday, but another disturbance dropping in from the midwest will bring at least a small chance of rain or snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Light snow showers finally dissipating across eastern portions of my CWA as upper trof axis swings eastward. Isolated snow showers and flurries will peter out by 7 am with little if any additional accumulations. Eyes will shift west and northwest as the day wears on, as cold northwest flow and a fair amount of instability and orographic lift come together to produce scattered to numerous snow showers from the Laurels to the northwest mountains. The Laurels may see this activity punctuated by a heavier burst of snow showers this afternoon as 50-100J/kg CAPES are advertised by CAMs. For the above reasons and in collaboration with PBZ/BUF, went ahead and issued Winter Weather Advisories for Somerset County (orographic enhancement) and for Warren/McKean Counties (for lake effect) for this afternoon/tonight through midday Wednesday/late afternoon Wednesday (respectively). Over the Alleghenies, the upper trough axis will combine with orographic forcing to produce scattered to numerous snow showers, producing a fresh coating overnight in many locations. NBM/Superblend max temps range from the low 30s over the Alleghenies, to the low 40s across the Lower Susq Valley. Tight pressure gradient west of intensifying low over New England will result in gusty winds, making it feel even colder. Bufkit soundings support gusts between 20-25kts, with the highest gusts in the southern half of the state. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Snow showers will continue west and north with additional accumulations tonight into Wednesday over the Laurels and Northwest mountains. Steady snow in the cold conveyor belt wraparound from the intense storm over the offshore New England waters will bring continued accumulations through Wednesday evening over the north. Some areas along and north of Route 6 may exceed 8 inches for this duration Advisory event. East of the mountains, little if any accumulation is expected, but it will be cold and breezy with a few flurries at times. Mins tonight will be in the lower to middle 20s with highs Wednesday ranging from the upper 20s northwest to near 40 southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Persistent blustery northwest flow will keep cold air advection moving into the region through late week. This will allow for well below normal temperatures and scattered snow showers persisting Thu and Fri west and north especially. Couple this with the gusty winds and wind chills every morning will be in the teens through Thursday morning. Conditions will improve late Friday into Saturday with some moderation this weekend as upper- level ridging across the middle of the country builds eastward. Another trof undercutting the ridge may spread a chance of rain or snow showers into central PA Sat night and Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold, northwest flow pattern will support persistent snow showers and prolonged MVFR to IFR conditions over the western 1/3 of the airspace through midweek. Downslope winds from 270-320 degrees favors mainly MVFR to low VFR ceilings and occasional light snow showers and flurries over the central and eastern 2/3 of the airspace. A few localized snow squalls are also possible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Expect gusty winds 25-35kts Tue-Wed before gradually diminishing late-week. Outlook... Tue-Thu...MVFR-IFR in snow showers wrn 1/3; mainly VFR with occasional MVFR possible in brief snow showers/flurries central and eastern 2/3. Fri-Sat...VFR. No sig wx.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ004-005. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...DeVoir/Ceru AVIATION...Steinbugl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.