Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS State College, PA
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000
FXUS61 KCTP 280328
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1128 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer than average temperatures and periods of isolated rain
showers continue through Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Showers end by Thursday night, and it will turn breezy and
cooler through Friday. Another period of showers is expected on
Saturday before conditions dry out for Easter Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The early round of isolated showers in the lower Susquehanna
Valley have moved off east. PoPs have been adjusted to reflect
the current radar trends of showers remaining east of central
PA. There will be a break for a couple hours before the coastal
low brings an additional round of showers into the south east
tonight. Guidance continues to paint max POPs over our southeast
counties tonight and Thursday morning where forcing ahead of
the front is greatest. A mention of patchy fog has been
included for tonight into Thursday morning due to light SE winds
and increased coastal moisture ahead of the slow moving cold
front, but cloud cover will be the limiting factor for wide
spread fog development.
The dichotomy in cloud cover/showers will loom large overnight
as temperatures stay fairly steady overnight in the southeast
and drop 15 to 25 degrees degrees in the northwest by daybreak
Thursday.
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.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface low over the southeastern states ripples northward
along the front on Thursday as it remains draped along the
eastern seaboard. This will keep showers over the southeast
counties for most of the day, while central and western areas
enjoy drier conditions and at least partial sunshine. Model
guidance continues to shift heaviest amounts farther east, and
WPC superensemble indicates only a 40% chance of 0.5" or more
for far southeastern PA from this system through Thursday
afternoon. The western extent of measurable rainfall has shifted
eastward a bit and should be mainly confined to the lower
Susquehanna Valley.
Temperatures on Thursday will also begin to cool behind the
departing cold front giving us near normal temperatures to end
the week. Highs Thursday will be in the middle 40s to low 50s.
Brightening skies will build in from the west on Thursday
afternoon along with a slight uptick in winds. Clear skies by
Friday morning will support a seasonable night with lows in the
upper 20s across the north and mid 30s in the south. Northwest
winds could be gusting 20 to 35 mph (highest on the ridges in
the Laurel Highlands) by mid day Friday. High pressure will
build in and become dominant over the region by Friday
afternoon. Dewpoints are likely going to be lower than what
guidance has suggested. Combining that with the higher winds a
marginal fire weather concern could be present over the area for
Friday afternoon. Cool temperatures and higher fuel moistures
will play a role in keeping that risk lower.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient
tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up
to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel
Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale
subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri
afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values
25-35% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures in
the 50s and moist fine fuel moisture will be limiting factors.
A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a
somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week
associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for central and western airfields
while restrictions continue in eastern PA (IPT, MDT, and LNS).
Scattered showers will continue across eastern PA with southeast
flow continuing ahead of the approaching cold front. MVFR
ceilings will lower overnight at IPT, MDT, and LNS with IFR
conditions prevailing for several hours at all sites.
Farther west, MVFR ceilings are possible at UNV, JST, and AOO as
the cold front sweeps through. Conditions there should improve
overnight as northwest flow builds in and brings drier air to
the region. Southerly winds shift to west and then northwest
overnight into Thursday morning with occasional gusts to 15 to
20mph in the south. All sites improve to VFR by Thursday
afternoon.
Outlook...
Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.
Thu PM-Fri...Improving conds.
Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry
weather Sunday afternoon.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
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$$
SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Bowen
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner