Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 280328 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1128 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warmer than average temperatures and periods of isolated rain showers continue through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Showers end by Thursday night, and it will turn breezy and cooler through Friday. Another period of showers is expected on Saturday before conditions dry out for Easter Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The early round of isolated showers in the lower Susquehanna Valley have moved off east. PoPs have been adjusted to reflect the current radar trends of showers remaining east of central PA. There will be a break for a couple hours before the coastal low brings an additional round of showers into the south east tonight. Guidance continues to paint max POPs over our southeast counties tonight and Thursday morning where forcing ahead of the front is greatest. A mention of patchy fog has been included for tonight into Thursday morning due to light SE winds and increased coastal moisture ahead of the slow moving cold front, but cloud cover will be the limiting factor for wide spread fog development. The dichotomy in cloud cover/showers will loom large overnight as temperatures stay fairly steady overnight in the southeast and drop 15 to 25 degrees degrees in the northwest by daybreak Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A surface low over the southeastern states ripples northward along the front on Thursday as it remains draped along the eastern seaboard. This will keep showers over the southeast counties for most of the day, while central and western areas enjoy drier conditions and at least partial sunshine. Model guidance continues to shift heaviest amounts farther east, and WPC superensemble indicates only a 40% chance of 0.5" or more for far southeastern PA from this system through Thursday afternoon. The western extent of measurable rainfall has shifted eastward a bit and should be mainly confined to the lower Susquehanna Valley. Temperatures on Thursday will also begin to cool behind the departing cold front giving us near normal temperatures to end the week. Highs Thursday will be in the middle 40s to low 50s. Brightening skies will build in from the west on Thursday afternoon along with a slight uptick in winds. Clear skies by Friday morning will support a seasonable night with lows in the upper 20s across the north and mid 30s in the south. Northwest winds could be gusting 20 to 35 mph (highest on the ridges in the Laurel Highlands) by mid day Friday. High pressure will build in and become dominant over the region by Friday afternoon. Dewpoints are likely going to be lower than what guidance has suggested. Combining that with the higher winds a marginal fire weather concern could be present over the area for Friday afternoon. Cool temperatures and higher fuel moistures will play a role in keeping that risk lower. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Northwest winds will pick up on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departing low pressure system. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are progged across the southeast and Laurel Highlands. With high pressure building in, large scale subsidence will lead to mostly sunny skies and low dewpoints Fri afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and min RH values 25-35% could present fire weather concerns, but temperatures in the 50s and moist fine fuel moisture will be limiting factors. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain Sat or Sat night. Beyond that, a somewhat more substantial rainfall is possible early next week associated with a stronger low approaching from the midwest.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail for central and western airfields while restrictions continue in eastern PA (IPT, MDT, and LNS). Scattered showers will continue across eastern PA with southeast flow continuing ahead of the approaching cold front. MVFR ceilings will lower overnight at IPT, MDT, and LNS with IFR conditions prevailing for several hours at all sites. Farther west, MVFR ceilings are possible at UNV, JST, and AOO as the cold front sweeps through. Conditions there should improve overnight as northwest flow builds in and brings drier air to the region. Southerly winds shift to west and then northwest overnight into Thursday morning with occasional gusts to 15 to 20mph in the south. All sites improve to VFR by Thursday afternoon. Outlook... Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E. Thu PM-Fri...Improving conds. Sat-Mon...Multiple rounds of showers with a period of dry weather Sunday afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banghoff/Bowen NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Bowen SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Bowen LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert AVIATION...Banghoff/Gartner

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