Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 200242 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1042 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will build into the area for the next 4 or 5 days. After a cold day on Friday, there will be a gradual warming trend over the weekend which will continue through the first part of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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0240Z Radar has light returns through the NE corner with only light snow falling. Have limited to no accums with these showers due to the strong cold air and obvious mixing from the strong air aloft. The upper level system continues to move eastward, however post frontal northwesterly flow continues with gust flow across central PA. Gusts have diminished through the far SE of the Lower Susquehanna region, however given the strong air aloft and limited directional shear, expect for gusts to continue overnight. So given that winds remain and current temperatures are still in the upper 30s to low 40s this mixed atmosphere will keep the temps from bottoming out. However, the continued cold air by the arriving air mass and clear skies should drop temps in the SE to near or slightly below freezing. Only the metro/urban areas will stay above freezing.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough swings totally out on Friday with NW flow left for the day. This will keep it much colder than normal for Friday. Wind stays up in the teens during the day. Good news is that a giant sfc high pressure area over the upper plains/midwest slides in and begins to modify under the April sun this weekend.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday and beyond, there will be a welcome break of lighter wind, sunshine and milder temps as a large area of high pressure moves out of the midwest. Another series of upper lows look to move across the south and into the eastern US next week. This may spread some precipitation toward our region into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A slow moving and strengthening storm system over the Canadian Maritimes will bring breezy conditions to central Pennsylvania through Friday. Northwest winds will abate a bit tonight, but Bufkit soundings support gusts of around 25kts returning by late Friday morning. Low level moisture ascending the Appalachians will produce predominantly MVFR cigs over the northwest mountains (KBFD) tonight, while areas further south along the Appalachians (KJST) may experience tempo MVFR. Elsewhere, confidence in VFR conditions is high overnight. Any MVFR cigs should mix out by late morning, with widespread VFR a near certainty by Friday afternoon, as high pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Outlook... Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ036-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Ceru SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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