Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240029 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 829 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build southeast toward the region and will bring mainly clear skies, seasonably cool mornings and warm afternoons to the region for the next couple of days. Look for humidity and the chance for showers and thunderstorms to increase as we head through the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1020mb sfc high centered over Northern Michigan this evening will advect drier air south into the region overnight with some patchy fog likely in the deeper valleys of northern PA. Although skies will be free of clouds across the region overnight, areas of high level smoke will drift SE over the state. The origin of this smoke is from several moderately large fires across NE North Dakota, NW Minnestoa, and the Prairies of Southern Manitoba, Canada. Good radiational cooling will occur tonight with a light north to northwest wind. Temperatures will bottom out in the 40s and 50s by sunrise Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pressure in control Thursday with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s under full sunshine. Highest pressures still north and west keeping the air rather dry as well. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Look for high pressure and dry weather through Friday with seasonable morning lows and warm afternoons. Saturday is trending drier and will probably be the warmest day of the holiday weekend with most locations in the 80s. 12Z mid to long range models continue to show an approach trough that will swing through the great lakes. With streaming southwesterly moisture and max temps in the 80s, Saturday afternoon could see some convection. Sunday into Memorial day could continue to see more unsettled, humid and a little cooler weather. While there will be pops in the forecast, still uncertain exactly how wet things will turn out. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions for the next several days. Outlook... Thu-Fri...VFR/no sig wx expected. Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ross/Lambert NEAR TERM...Ross/Lambert SHORT TERM...Ross LONG TERM...Ross/Gartner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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