Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 230344 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1144 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep us fair through Monday. Developing low pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during the middle of the week bringing a rainy period. Behind this system, an upper level trough will set up over the area, bringing potential for showers this weekend and a continuation of below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Quiet tonight into Monday as surface high drifts to the east and upper ridge pushes through. Only clouds will be some thin cirrus overnight, with a mostly sunny day in store on Monday with a mid deck working into the SW half of CWA. A dry airmass in place will allow temps to drop into the 30s to around 40F tonight, with some valleys in toe northern mountains and northeast potentially slipping into the 20s with clear skies and light winds. Highs on Monday will be a bit warmer than Sunday, with low-level mixing likely keeping dewpoints lower than guidance much of the day, especially over the NE half. These will begin to slowly rise from the south as SE flow begins to advect moisture our way ahead of an approaching system. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward under the Rex Block, bringing potential for the first light showers to reach SW PA by Tuesday morning. Increasing and thickening clouds will keep overnight temps a bit milder than recent nights, generally in the lower to mid 40s, though drier air and less clouds in the northern mountains and northeast may allow lows to slip into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A building ridge just off the Eastern Seaboard will slow the forward progression of a compact and weakening mid/upper low drifting northeast from TN Valley across the Appalachians on Tuesday. Additional northern stream energy extending south from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes will likely influence the system evolution Wednesday into Thursday. The 22/12Z GFS/EC/CMC show a wide spread in the precip pattern Friday into Saturday with low confidence in the forecast. There is reasonable agreement toward drier wx by Sunday. Wet weather will replace the 3-day stretch of sunny, pleasant and increasingly mild conditions with light to moderate rain spreading across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain should taper off in most locations on Thursday with a mainly dry period into Thursday night. There should be another round of rain sometime Friday or Saturday but timing is uncertain. Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the week with temperatures trending slightly below average into next weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over Pennsylvania will drift slowly southeast over the next 24 hours, ensuring VFR conditions across central Pa through Monday. Winds will be very light tonight, but pick up a bit on Monday. Bukfit soundings indicate there will be southeasterly gusts of 15-20kts Monday afternoon in the vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with slightly lighter winds further north and east. Outlook... Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely. Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving. Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...RXR SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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