Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 201044 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 644 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will build into the area through the beginning of next week. After yet another cold day today, a gradual warming trend will develop starting on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Radar continues to show a band of light snow showers from near Wellsboro down just west of Williamsport. the HRRR is consistently too fast in drying these up. Rising heights and a strengthening inversion will soon spell the end of these stubborn showers, but they will likely hang on through sunrise before petering out altogether. A sprawling area of high pressure will build into the region today bringing drier air and a diminishing wind. With a fair amount of sunshine, we will add several degrees to yeterday`s highs. However we will still be some 10-20 deg below what it should be for the 3rd week of April. Fair skies and light winds will bring another chilly night to the CWA. Lows in the 20s and 30s will once again be several deg colder than normal. We have a handful of counties over the lower Susq that have technically started the growing season, and as of tomorrow (April 21) that area expands northward by a row or two of counties. This being the case, a new freeze watch seems prudent. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Saturday will be bright and dry with a light breeze. Highs generally in the 50s will feel nice for a change under the high late April sun. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the region around Tuesday and beyond. An upper low currently over southern Utah is made to track east under the upper ridge that extends from the Midwest up into Canada. As the low emerges onto the plains it takes on a sort of rex-blocky appearance as it crawls eastward. Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low as it approaches the east coast, reforming the long wave trough over the eastern US by the end of the week. The good news is that what looks like it could end up being several days of unsettled weather, it will be mild enough that the precipitation type will be rain. High temperatures are expected be colder than normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far this month. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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No big changes to the 12Z TAFS. Still some lower clds at BFD. High pressure building into PA this weekend will keep VFR conditions across the region into Monday. Winds will remain gusty until late aft or evening. Outlook... Sat-Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Rain/low cigs possible.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ036-057-059- 063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...La Corte NEAR TERM...La Corte SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte/Lambert AVIATION...Martin

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