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309
FXUS61 KCTP 080346
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1146 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
- A warm front will drift northeast across the area this
  evening with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm
  across southern PA.
- Low pressure moves just north of the area tonight into
  Wednesday morning, brining showers and thunderstorms.
- A stronger wave of low pressure will move across southern PA
  Thursday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Increasing clouds are expected for the next couple of hours
ahead of an approaching low-pressure system. Some pop-up showers
remain possible across the Lower Susquehanna Valley for the next
couple of hours with no thunderstorm development expected due to
a lack of instability.

Showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern Ohio are
expected to continue moving into Pennsylvania during the late
evening hours tonight with models outlining a slightly slower
arrival time than previous guidance was indicating, with
estimated arrival in western zones expected between 2-3am
Wednesday morning. Some increased instability will allow for
thunderstorm mentions throughout the overnight period which
could bring locally heavier downpours, as noted in the D1 ERO
across western PA although the progressive nature of precip
should lower any flooding concerns.

Lingering precipitation remains possible after sunrise across
eastern Pennsylvania, with the bulk of model guidance suggesting
most of the precipitation out of central Pennsylvania in the
7-9am timeframe.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front associated with the low-pressure system stationed
to the north is expected to move slowly across the area on
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Model soundings have outlined
mid-level dry air after the cold frontal passage which will curb
precipitation chances throughout the day on Wednesday. Multiple
runs of HREF guidance has also hinted at no precipitation, thus
have chopped mentions of precipitation out of the forecast.

During the early morning hours of Thursday, a stationary front
has potential to set up across southern Pennsylvania, with model
guidance suggesting another (more potent) low-pressure system
setting up along/just south of the PA-MD border. This will bring
an increased chance of showers and afternoon/evening
thunderstorms on Thursday. If the low-pressure system sets up
further to the north, there is some potential for portions of
southern PA to have a couple of hours in the warm sector and
some severe potential (outlined in SPC`s Day 3 SWO with SLGT up
to the MD-PA border) but with the bulk of model guidance
suggesting set-up south of the area, have mainly stuck to SChc
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The aforementioned low moves off the coast on Friday and will
allow for relatively cool temperatures across central PA with
lingering showers as the unsettled pattern continues into the
weekend with the longwave trough across the region. The best
chances of precipitation tapering off will be in the overnight
Saturday morning period with chances increasing into the latter
half of the weekend.

Upper level ridging across the western CONUS will continue the
unsettled pattern into the beginning of next week, with
temperatures moderating with height rises and southwesterly flow
into central Pennsylvania.
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&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure lifting through the Eastern Grt Lks will spread a
broken line of showers/tsra through the region late tonight,
lasting 2-3 hours and accompanied by possible MVFR vis
reductions. An increasingly moist southwest flow ahead of an
upstream cold front is then likely to yield late night IFR cigs
at KBFD and possible IFR cigs at KJST. Downsloping flow east of
the Alleghenies should result in nothing worse than MVFR
conditions over that part of the state.

The passage of a low level jet late tonight could result in
borderline LLWS conditions across the W Mtns late tonight.
However, the 18Z Bufkit soundings suggest we will remain just
below criteria.

The cold front will sweep through the region later Wed morning,
probably without any precipitation. A drier westerly flow behind
the front will bring a return to widespread VFR conditions
between 12Z-15Z.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs possible, mainly PM.

Fri...Low cigs/drizzle possible, especially in the morning.

Sat...PM showers/low cigs possible, mainly W Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Sct afternoon showers/brief
vis reductions possible.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Fitzgerald