Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 231016 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 616 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns today after the passage of a cold front overnight. High pressure will build southeast into the region and maintain fair and warm weather into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Deep layer moisture slowly decreasing across central and eastern PA as the slow moving front continues to sag southeastward. Remaining isolated showers will exit my northeast counties by 800 AM. Partial clearing in the pre dawn hours has led to local fog over the Lower Susq River Valley and portions of the Ridge and Valley region, which will dissipate by 900 AM. Expect mostly sunny skies throughout central Pa by afternoon, with 850 mb temps around 12C translating to max temps ranging from the mid 70s in the mountains to around 80F southeast. Clear skies are expected tonight as 1024 mb sfc high builds over western half of PA. Mins will range from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... Nice stretch of weather continues Thursday with plentiful sunshine and a warm afternoon with comfortable humidity. Maxes will range from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south with dewpoints in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Look for high pressure and dry weather through Friday with seasonable morning lows and warm afternoons. Saturday is trending drier and will probably be the warmest day of the holiday weekend with most locations in the 80s. 12Z mid to long range models continue to show an approach trough that will swing through the great lakes. With streaming southwesterly moisture and max temps in the 80s, Saturday afternoon could see some convection. Sunday into Memorial day could continue to see more unsettled, humid and a little cooler weather. While there will be pops in the forecast, still uncertain exactly how wet things will turn out. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Final batch of showers/T-storms will exit the northeast airspace (KIPT vicinity) by 09Z. IFR to LMVFR ceilings will be across the western airspace early this morning with improvement to VFR expected by 15Z. IFR conditions impacting the southeast airfields should improve as winds shift to a westerly component. MVFR to LVFR cigs will be common over the central TAFs. High confidence in return to widespread VFR at all sites by midday. Skies will clear into tonight with some patchy valley fog possible into early Thursday morning. Outlook... Thu-Fri...AM valley fog, otherwise VFR/no sig wx expected. Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte LONG TERM...Ross AVIATION...Steinbugl

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