Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 251904 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 304 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A sunny and dry start to the week with seasonal temperatures followed by clouds and periods of rain from Tuesday through Thursday. Fair weather with brisk winds and slightly cooler temperatures will close out the week on Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1040mb high pressure centered over the Gulf of St. Lawrence channeling southward along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians will maintain dry wx in CPA through tonight. Southeast wind gusts peak in the 35-45 mph range on the ridgetops across the western and northern Alleghenies from late this evening through tonight. We added some potential limited wind impacts to the HWO, but will hold off on issuing an advisory with the highest gusts more likely in the downslope areas in PBZ`s CWA and closer to the Lake Erie shoreline. Lows tonight in the 30-40F range will be within +/- 3F of climo over the SE half of the CWA, to +5-10 deg F above normal over the western and northern Alleghenies. HREF data continues to indicate low clouds expanding into the lower Susquehanna Valley into early Tuesday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The aforementioned low clouds could expand as far west as the I99 corridor by late Tuesday morning. The lower clouds will work in underneath thickening mid and high clouds from the west and result in a cloudy day tomorrow. The low clouds coupled with the cool/moist southeast flow could hold temps back in the mid- upper 40s on the east side of the Alleghenies - a scenario that the NAM and other hires guidance is increasingly bullish - which caused us to fade the NBM maxT by a few degrees for now. A slow moving and weakening sfc cold/occluded front will slowly push eastward across CPA through midweek. Periods of rain are forecast with QPF amounts 0.10-0.25" through Wednesday. Max temps are forecast to peak on Wednesday in the 50-60F range bookended by relatively mild nights for late March. Focus for rain should shift into southeast PA by Thursday as wave of low pressure develops along the southeast coast. Trends in the guidance have been for the low to track closer to the coastline, which brings higher POPs and QPF into play over the lower Susquehanna Valley/southeast PA. The latest WPC/NBM qpf blend yields ~0.50" for areas to the southeast of I-81 Wed night through Thursday, with heavier rain forecast farther to the southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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All medium range guidance develops an area of low pressure on the stalling front over the southeast coast, then tracks it northeast late this week. The bulk of ensemble members keep this system too far east to affect most of Central PA. However, enough members track it close enough to support a chance of rain over the southeast part of the forecast area Thursday. Plumes indicate if it does rain, substantial amounts of near 1 inch are possible. There is a broad agreement among guidance that fair and seasonable conditions return for Friday, as large scale subsidence overspreads the state behind the exiting upper trough. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could produce a bit of light rain or showers Sat or Sat night.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Widespread VFR conds will continue through evening and into the first part of tonight/thru 06Z. Increasing southeasterly low level flow tonight into early Tuesday will bring low clouds into the southeast airspace with HREF indicating >70% of MVFR. These clouds could make it as far west as AOO/UNV by late Tuesday morning, but for now (given reduced confidence/~50% probability) have kept cig height just above MVFR. LLWS 40-50kt from 150-180 degrees is expected to impact the western airfields 00-18Z Tuesday. A band of rain is forecast to reach the western airspace by Tuesday evening and slowly push eastward across the central and eastern airspace through Thursday. Outlook... Tue...Increasing clouds areawide. Tue night-Wed...Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR cigs. Thu...Rain sub-VFR cigs possible S/E. Thu night-Fri...MVFR cigs west. Wind gusts 20-30kt from 300 degrees. Sat...Chance of rain mainly over the southwest airspace.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Steinbugl

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