Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250947 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 547 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic will produce scattered showers today. High pressure will move in tonight and dry things out for Thursday. The weather will remain unsettled as the pattern stays active into the first half of the weekend. A stretch of fair, dry weather will start Sunday. Temperatures will warm nicely next week as high pressure floats across from Canada, but then sets up as a Bermuda High and turns the wind out of the south. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Elongated low pressure now over NC/VA will creep northeast and eventually through NJ later today. Multiple, weak waves aloft will make it unsettled today, but the major wave will not arrive from upstream until tonight. Coverage of showers will never be 100pct over the area, so it is tough to justify cranking up the POPs all the way. Still, lots of showers, all pretty light, will hang around all day. Temps won`t move up more than 5-6F over the west today, and perhaps only 10 degrees in the east. But, everybody will get into the 50s and some into the lower 60s. Not too much below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Sharp trough over nrn ONT and the Upper Great Lakes will cut off and move across NY tonight and early Thurs. The effect will be to reinvigorate the showers just as they start to die. The upslope into the Alleghenies and Laurels will keep a few showers around into the night, but they should dwindle by sunrise or very shortly afterward. Behind this stronger upper trough, we will have a short visit by high pressure on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... All the models agree that a weak and fast-moving sfc low will zip through the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. The eventual rain shield and northwestward extent of it is in question. Have tempered the POPs a little as the EC and NAM both are drier this cycle. The highest POPs will be over the SE, and least along the northern border. An upper trough just moving into the PAC NW will arrive sometime early in the weekend, perhaps not too far behind the weak system for Friday. This will keep it unsettled into Sat. Big anticyclone strengthens as it drops down from the great white north. It will benefit from a giant upper ridge which will amplify as next week begins. The high moves to a very favorable spot for PA - centered along or just off the NC coast. The warm return flow will lead to a nice change from the dreariness of the next few days. But before the warm, there will be a frost/freeze risk Monday morning. This is also thanks to the big sfc high being centered overhead at that time. Temperatures will then trend notably warmer with readings in the 70s/approaching 80F in some locations by next Tuesday as the Bermuda high exerts a positive influence on the region. An extended period of dry and a green up which is only just beginning over much of Central PA could spell fire wx troubles next week. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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09Z TAF updates sent. As of 5 AM, main area of showers moving northward out of VA into the southeast part of central PA. Some showers will be on the heavy side, and perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Left thunder out of the TAFS for now. Expect the showers to slowly taper off by late morning and early afternoon, then slowly improving conditions later this afternoon into Thursday morning. Thursday looks like the best day. New EC model shows that most of the area could be not real bad on Friday, excluding the southeast, where showers will be most likely. Outlook... Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns. Fri...Areas of rain with low cigs etc. Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns. Sun...Reductions possible NW Mtns.
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&& .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin

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