-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 230025
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
825 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep us fair through Monday. Developing low
pressure will lift northeast along the eastern seaboard during
the middle of the week. Behind this system, an upper level
trough will set up over the northeast conus.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some high-level moisture producing only thin cirrus today with
surface high pressure in control. Temps peaking in the lower to
mid 60s with dry conditions as dewpoints have mixed down to the
teens for much of the NE half of CWA.

Quiet tonight into Monday as ridge moves through. Highs will
be a bit warmer than today with a SE wind being the harbinger
of the clouds and rain that will follow for midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving upper low will crawl eastward under the Rex Block,
bringing potential for the first light showers to reach SW PA
by Tuesday morning. Overnight temps will be a bit milder, in the
40s most locales, though drier air and less clouds in the
northern mountains and northeast may bring lows down into the
upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A building ridge just off the Eastern Seaboard will slow the
forward progression of a compact and weakening mid/upper low
drifting northeast from TN Valley across the Appalachians on
Tuesday. Additional northern stream energy extending south from
Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes will likely influence the
system evolution Wednesday into Thursday. The 22/12Z GFS/EC/CMC
show a wide spread in the precip pattern Friday into Saturday with
low confidence in the forecast. There is reasonable agreement
toward drier wx by Sunday.

Wet weather will replace the 3-day stretch of sunny, pleasant
and increasingly mild conditions with light to moderate rain
spreading across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain should
taper off in most locations on Thursday with a mainly dry
period into Thursday night. There should be another round of
rain sometime Friday or Saturday but timing is uncertain.

Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the week with
temperatures trending slightly below average into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the Great Lakes late today will drift
southeast over the next 24 hours, ensuring VFR conditions
across central Pa. Winds will be very light through tonight, but
pick up a bit on Monday. Bukfit soundings indicate there will
be southeasterly gusts of 15-20kts Monday afternoon in the
vicinity of KJST/KAOO, with slightly lighter winds further north
and east.

Outlook...

Tue...Rain/low cigs becoming likely.

Wed...AM rain/low cigs likely, then improving.

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible, mainly west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Fitzgerald