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016
FXUS61 KCTP 011538
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain
 and thunderstorms Sat/Sun
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cu popped over the SErn half of the area but is starting to
dissipate in many places as the sfc dewpoints drop. LNS Td still
in the L60s, so the cu will be the mostest there. Higher clouds
will cross the (mainly nrn part) of the area this aftn as warm
air invades. Only minor tweaks made to T, Td, and sky.

Prev...
As a ridge of high pressure at the SFC and aloft drifts east and
over the state today, dewpoints into (or slowly down through)
the 40s with a splendid late morning and afternoon, soaked with
sunshine and unlimited visibility.

Comfortably warm high temps will reach the low to mid 70s over
the Northern and Western Mtns and upper 70s to low 80s
respectively in the Central and Southern Valleys. These readings
are +10 to +15 compared to average. Thursday will a few degrees
warmer for much of the Commonwealth.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Mainly clear skies with just patchy late night valley fog
tonight as a light west to southwest breeze prevails ahead of a
weak and dry secondary cold dropping south from the Lower
Glakes and New York State.

Lows temps will range from the upper 40s in the coldest rural
valleys of NW PA to the upper 50s on some of the ridges in
Central and Southern PA, where a light westerly breeze will keep
the Blyr stirred up a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Expect nearly a carbon copy of today`s (Wednesday`s) weather on
Thursday with a light to moderately gusty NW wind. Dewpoints
lower by a few to several deg F Thursday will translate into
afternoon MinRH values in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Easterly flow begins to take hold on Friday, as high pressure
noses down the eastside of the Appalachians. This should result
in cooler temperatures Friday, especially across eastern PA.
This setup could also favor low clouds into the middle and
lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the
Midwest into the commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied
by an increasing chc of showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring
drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching
warm front could bring a return of clouds and showers/storms on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low stratus has developed across the Laurel Highlands thanks to
a moist, upslope flow. Patchy valley fog has also developed
across much of north central PA, due to clearing skies, damp
ground and diminishing winds. These will be the primary concerns
through sunrise, with areas of locally LIFR vsby and cigs.
Farther to the west, drier air filtering in from the northwest
will work against the formation of fog.

Expect quick improvement areawide Wed morning, with building
high pressure providing mostly sunny skies and a W/NW sfc breeze
of 5-10 kts. VFR conds will prevail with only mid and upper
level clouds.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri AM...No sig wx expected.

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/
reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations
on Monday:

SITE        2024 OBS     PRVS RECORD
Altoona          86F     83F (1956)
Bradford         82F     76F (1984)
Williamsport     89F     86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year,
almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May
11th).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert