Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 180221 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1021 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A fair and mainly dry weekend across central Pennsylvania with temperatures rebounding toward seasonal levels. There is the potential for snow to kick off astronomical spring Monday night into Tuesday across south central PA. Otherwise, the pattern will continue to favor cooler than average temperatures and dry weather through late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Skies have cleared nicely this evening, and will remain so for most areas overnight. A few lake clouds may sneak into the northwest after midnight, but by and large mostly clear should suffice there as well. It will be another cold night with lows in the low/mid teens north to mid 20s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Sunday will be mostly sunny and dry with temperatures rebounding to near seasonal averages. Mainly clear to partly cloudy Sunday night with still chilly for this time of year in the upper teens north to upper 20s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The main weather maker of concern is a low that slides across the TN Valley and central Appalachians Mon night and moves off the VA coast on Tuesday. Trend for this storm has been gradually further south, which will keep biggest impacts along and south of the Mason/Dixon line. The surface low itself looks to only deepen by around 5mb as it reaches the coast, with the associated upper wave opening up as it moves through. This keeps with the other trend of lowering the threat of accumulating snow or wintry mix even over the southern portion of CWA, which matches with the WPC snowfall/ice forecasts. This time of year with marginal temps, we generally need good precipitation rates to keep it cold enough to be all snow and so far the indications are that several days out, this might be hard to come by. Below normal temps are forecast to persist though mid week with a moderating trend toward normal readings for the end of the week into next weekend. Spring Equinox is Tuesday at 1215 pm EDT. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure and associated dry airmass building into Pennsylvania will ensure VFR conditions and a diminishing breeze tonight. Model data continues to support a high confidence of widespread VFR conditions into Sunday. However, there is a chance of MVFR stratocu spreading into northern Pa late Sunday evening associated with the passage of a weak cold front. Outlook... Mon...No sig wx expected. Tue...Snow likely southern Pa, mainly early AM. Wed...AM light snow possible Laurel Highlands. Thu...No sig wx expected. && .CLIMATE... The Spring (Vernal) Equinox will be at 12:15 PM on Tuesday, March 20. Sunrise in State College, PA will be 7:14 AM and sunset at 7:23 PM, for a total daylength of just over 12 hours. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte/RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald CLIMATE... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.