Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170651 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 251 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper low over the eastern Great Lakes will slowly lift northeast and away from the area by early Wednesday. Developing low pressure in the Mississippi Valley will track east across Pennsylvania Wednesday night and early Thursday, then high pressure will work into the region late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Shortwave rotating through base of upper trough will cut across Pennsylvania early this morning, accompanied by scattered snow showers over the Allegheny Plateau. Downsloping flow east of the mountains will result in nothing more than scattered flurries elsewhere. Based on latest model qpf, expect an additional half inch or so between 06Z and dawn in many locations across the Allegheny Plateau. Temperatures will coast downward early this morning, as colder air mass filters in on westerly flow. Readings by dawn should range from the upper 20s over the Alleghenies, to the mid 30s across the Susq Valley. Next in series of shortwaves is progged to swing southeast across the region Tuesday, accompanied by scattered snow showers and even a few heavier squalls. Steep lower tropospheric lapse rates noted in the models and even some CAPE, indicating the snow squall threat, mainly during the afternoon hours across the northern/western mountains. Based on the high sun angle, not too concerned about slippery travel. After some early sunshine east of the mountains, diurnal heating and pool of very chilly air aloft will result in plenty of clouds and unseasonably cool temps. Model 850mb temps only support highs from the 30s over the Allegheny Plateau, to the mid 40s over the Susq Valley. A gusty west wind will add to the chill. Bufkit soundings support frequent gusts in the 20-25kt range, and occasional gusts of around 30kts, during the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Another shortwave is progged to swing across northern Pa tonight, accompanied by additional snow showers. Based on model qpf, expect additional accums over the northwest mountains to be less than an inch, with activity winding down upon passage of shortwave early Wednesday morning. A brief period of fair weather appears certain for most of Wednesday, as upper low lifts out and ridging at the surface and aloft works in. The return of partly to mostly skies will result in milder temperatures, but still below average. Expect increasing clouds late in the day, with the chance of rain by evening, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Passage of low pressure will likely bring a period of rain Wednesday night, followed by possible snow showers over the mountains, as upper trough comes through Thursday. We don`t expect any significant accumulations, but as we enter mid April, the prospects for snow are less than welcome. Past Thursday we foresee a break of dry weather into early next weekend as energy reloads over the southwestern U.S. allowing weak upper ridging to build over the eastern part of the country. Yet another upper low in this busy pattern looks to drop into the deep south toward the end of the period...possibly spreading some precipitation toward our region for the beginning of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered rain showers have transitioned to snow showers over all but the far east locations. Expect a decrease in coverage of precipitation toward 03-06Z over all but the favored upslope sites of KBFD and KJST where snow showers will linger through the overnight hours with MVFR conditions. As the precipitation ends over these higher elevation sites Tuesday morning, all locations will be VFR with gusty winds continuing.Generally 20 to 30 kts. Outlook... Wed-Fri...Chance of rain/snow showers with IFR most likely NW 1/2. Sat...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...La Corte/Lambert AVIATION...La Corte/Tyburski

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