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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
000
FNUS71 KCTP 230944
FWSCTP
Spot Forecast for Bear Flats...Pennsylvania Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
544 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.
.DISCUSSION...
A chilly start; otherwise sunshine mixing with mid and high
clouds today. Low humidity and breezy conditions could result in
an elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon.
.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of frost early in
the morning, then patchy frost early in the
morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 65.
Min Humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing Height.......6400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10 to
15 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
the southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 74 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)........... 11 14 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 22 28 35
Weather Cov....... ARS PTY
Weather Type...... FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp.............. 35 38 40 47 51 56 59 61 62 63 64 64
RH................ 69 64 64 56 50 40 36 32 32 32 31 31
20 FT Wind Dir.... E E E SE S S S S S S S S
20 FT Wind Spd.... 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 11 11
20 FT Wind Gust... 4 4 4 6 10 11 13 14 17 18 18 18
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.3 4.7 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.3
Transp Wind Dir... E SE SE S S S S S S SW SW SW
Transp Wind Spd... 6 6 5 6 8 12 15 18 20 21 22 22
LVORI............. 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI............... 4 4 4 24 24 24 65 65 65 74 74 74
Haines Index...... 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
after 3 am.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 47.
Max Humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 10 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 10
to 15 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10 to 28.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)........... 41 48 54 61 69 76 83 91 98 96 93 91
Weather Cov....... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp.............. 62 60 56 54 52 50 49 48 48 48 48 48
RH................ 33 41 47 52 56 63 66 68 74 74 80 80
20 FT Wind Dir.... S S S S S S S S S S S SW
20 FT Wind Spd.... 11 11 11 10 11 9 8 8 7 6 7 7
20 FT Wind Gust... 17 17 14 14 14 14 12 11 10 10 10 10
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 4.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5
Transp Wind Dir... S S S S S S S S S SW SW SW
Transp Wind Spd... 21 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 12 10 12 12
LVORI............. 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4
ADI............... 28 28 28 14 14 14 12 12 12 10 10 10
Haines Index...... 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers through the day. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes until
1700, then No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 60.
Min Humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest in the late morning and afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest 20 to 25 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................23 early in the morning increasing to 74 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)........... 89 86 84 82 81 79 77 76 74 69 64 60
Weather Cov....... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type...... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm Cov.......... SCH SCH SCH
LAL............... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 1
Temp.............. 48 48 50 52 54 56 57 58 59 59 59 59
RH................ 83 86 83 77 69 64 59 57 53 51 49 47
20 FT Wind Dir.... SW SW W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT Wind Spd.... 8 8 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 12
20 FT Wind Gust... 11 12 14 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Mix Hgt (kft)..... 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.9 3.9 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.2
Transp Wind Dir... SW SW W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp Wind Spd... 12 13 15 23 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21
LVORI............. 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI............... 23 23 23 72 72 72 74 74 74 69 69 69
Haines Index...... 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
$$
Forecaster...Steinbugl
Requested by...Jarrid Doyle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411900.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jadoyle@pa.gov
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