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000
FNUS71 KCTP 211522
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Pats Ridge...PA - DCNR - BoF
National Weather Service State College PA
1122 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 21.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...

Skies will stay overcast into the mid afternoon hours before
clouds gradually break up from the west to east later today.

Min RH will range from the low 30s to low 40 percent range
today, between 25 and 30 pct Monday, and in the 30s Tuesday
afternoons. This should help to gradually dry out finer fuels
across the district.

The west to northwest wind will increase this afternoon to
around 10 MPH with gusts between 15 and 20 MPH afternoon.
Winds tonight will become light from the northwest or light
and variable in some locations. The wind will be a little
lighter on Monday compared to this Sunday afternoon.

The next chance for rain will arrive late Tuesday as the wind
turns to come out of the south and increases, especially across
the northern tier where gusts into the mid 30s are expected.
Showers move in from the west later Tuesday, and continue
through the day on Wednesday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 48.
Min Humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....West 17 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................59 to 60.

TIME (EDT)          12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  100 100 93  84  71  67
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  42  43  44  46  47  46
RH................  46  45  43  40  38  40
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   7   8   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix Hgt (kft).....  5.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5
Transp Wind Dir...  W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  17  18  17  17  18  18
LVORI.............  1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  60  60  60  59  59  59
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 30.
Max Humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light.
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 23.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  49  31  13  9   5   1   1   0   0   0   0   0
Weather Cov.......                                  ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather Type......                                  FST FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  44  42  41  39  37  36  34  33  32  32  31  31
RH................  41  44  46  50  56  59  64  69  72  72  75  75
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4
20 FT Wind Gust...  14  13  10  10  10  11  10  10  8   7   7   6
Mix Hgt (kft).....  5.1 2.1 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp Wind Dir...  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   NW  W   NW  W
Transp Wind Spd...  17  14  14  13  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  23  23  23  8   8   8   5   5   5   5   5   5
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 55.
Min Humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 6 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing Height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 8 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................16 early in the morning increasing to 60 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   3   2   2   1
Weather Cov.......  ARS ARS
Weather Type......  FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  30  30  33  37  41  45  47  49  51  52  54  53
RH................  78  75  66  54  46  40  37  33  30  31  28  31
20 FT Wind Dir....  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   6   6   8   7   8   8   7   7   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   7   11  12  13  14  14  13  13  12  12  11
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 0.5 1.1 2.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  9   8   12  15  18  18  18  18  17  16  17  16
LVORI.............  4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  16  16  16  55  55  55  60  60  60  59  59  59
Haines Index......  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Lambert
Requested by...Jeremy Dayhoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411600.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jerdayhoff@pa.gov