Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

An upper level low, currently over southeastern Colorado will
slide into southwestern Kansas this evening enhancing lift.
Towards the surface, an area of low pressure and associated
frontal boundary will move into far western Kansas this evening
then along the KS/OK border overnight. A few storms are expected
to form across far southwestern Kansas late this afternoon and
spread northeast this evening. A few of these storms may become
strong to severe before midnight with wind and hail being the main
concern. Continued showers are expected overnight as the upper
level feature oozes eastward with wrap around moisture across
western Kansas. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central Kansas overnight where around an inch of precipitation is
possible. Far southwestern Kansas will have the least chance of
precipitation and some places may not receive any at all. Light
showers look to continue tomorrow due to wrap around moisture from
the aforementioned system. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies
with some clearing across far western Kansas in the afternoon.
Strong northerly winds are also expected to continue tomorrow. As
for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 30s with
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow only look to
reach into the 40s with around 50 degrees across far southwestern

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

A dry weather pattern returns through Friday as an upper level
ridge starts out over the western United States then into the
Plains by Friday. There looks to be a disturbance to move through
the Northern Plains Friday, but will be to far north to affect
western Kansas. Models then suggest a disturbance to move through
the area this weekend. Confidence on timing and location are still
low and will watch future model runs for a better pattern to
emerge. As for temperatures, highs will start out in the 50s
Tuesday with low 80s possible Friday. We then return into the 70s
Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Poor aviation weather will continue through this TAF period.
Flight category will become widespread IFR once the cold front
pushes through in the 09-10Z time frame at the front end of this
TAF period. Winds will increase from the north at 20 to 25 knots
sustained. Light rain will build back south behind the front in
the wrap-around region of the vigorous upper low. Light rain will
persist through much of the day, and even mix with or change to a
wet snow up at the HYS terminal. If snow is the dominant precip
type, then visibility will be below 2 miles at times at HYS. Some
of the high resolution models bring wet snow as far south as DDC,
but this is a low confidence scenario, so GCK and DDC terminals
will remain all light rain in the TAF through the end of the
precip event.


DDC  35  38  28  58 /  90  50  10   0
GCK  36  42  25  58 /  70  40  10   0
EHA  40  50  27  60 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  38  47  27  60 /  60  20   0   0
HYS  34  38  27  55 / 100  80  30   0
P28  43  46  32  58 /  90  50  30   0




SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.