Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KDDC 232306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Upper system now over the Northern Rockies will be the main driver
of a colder airmass across western and central Kansas Tuesday. The
NAM/WRF pushes the front into the Hays-Garden-Elkhart corridor as
early as mid morning, and then through the entire area by mid
afternoon. Cape is generally weak to mostly non-existent in most
model output, however an 850 mb level warm advection signal with
even very weak MUCAPE in the afternoon should be sufficient for a
few thunderstorms. With expected cloudy/showery sensible weather,
favored the cooler consensus of MOS for most elements, which may
limit highs to the upper 40s/low 50s. High uncertainty exists in
the amount of precipitation from this system with overall lack of
forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the western sections
Wednesday morning following the frontal passage Tuesday night.
However, much will depend on the westward expansiveness of the
stratus layer as not a lot of cold air is in place. Much of the
model output at this point keep the area well above freezing.

A second cold front on Thursday is shown by the GFS and ECMWF.
However the better dynamics for precipitation are too far removed
north from our already moisture lacking region. So the northerly
breezy conditions will do little more than help create an elevated
fire risk for parts of the area (western sections most likely) and
hold highs mainly in the 60s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Low level stratus is then expected to develop along and
behind a cold front as it pushes southeast across western Kansas by
early afternoon, in turn resulting in likely MVFR cigs in the
vicinity of all TAF sites through the remainder of the period. Brief
periods of IFR cigs cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon at KHYS,
KGCK, or KDDC. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be associated
with the frontal boundary increasing the potential for periods of
MVFR vsbys as well. Southeast winds 5 to 15kt will persist through
early Tuesday morning as a weak lee side trough of low pressure
remains anchored across eastern Colorado while surface high
pressure prevails in the Upper Midwest. Gusty north-northwest
winds 15 to 30kt will develop mid/late morning into the afternoon
period as the aforementioned cold front pushes through western
Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Cooler temps and subsequent "not as low" daily min relative
humidities will limit the fire weather risk over the next couple
of days. Fire weather risk will be much more elevated by the
weekend, as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s, reducing
afternoon RH, with breezy south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  56  38  59 /  10  60  60  20
GCK  44  49  36  60 /  20  60  50  10
EHA  44  50  37  62 /   0  40  40  10
LBL  45  52  38  61 /  10  60  60  20
HYS  46  54  38  57 /  10  70  30  30
P28  50  64  43  60 /   0  40  60  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.