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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250905
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...Updated to include fire weather...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms will occur across central and southwest
  Kansas this afternoon and evening.

- Severe t-storms are expected over south central Kansas
  Saturday afternoon.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be
  limited to extreme western Kansas along the Colorado state
  line this afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
  afternoon across much of southwestern Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A strong upper level disturbance over the desert southwest will
approach the southern and central high plains late today. Ahead
of this system, a warm advection pattern has resulted in showers
and thunderstorms over eastern Kansas and northern and eastern
Oklahoma this morning. The elevated thunder was along and north
of a warm front that stretched from central Arkansas into
central Oklahoma and into western Kansas. The location of the
effective frontal boundary and dryline are still in question for
late today. There has been a tendency for the models to shift
the front north into northwest and central Kansas as opposed to
a couple of days ago when all the models kept the front at or
just southwest of Dodge City. The front will intersect the
dryline at some point across western or northwestern Kansas this
afternoon and evening and this will be a favored area for
thunderstorm initiation, some severe, with very large hail and
possibly tornadoes. Farther south, strong daytime heating ahead
of the dryline and modest mid level cooling with the
approaching disturbance should lead to isolated to scattered
thunderstorms by 3 to 5 pm. Any storms that form in the warm
sector would likely be severe. However, prior to the development
of the low level jet, these storms would pose more of a hail
threat than tornadoes, although tornadoes can`t be ruled out.
The tornado chances are higher along and just north of the
front where low level storm relative helicity is higher as a
result of strong shear near the ground (southeast winds veering
to southwest). Much of the uncertainty in boundary placement
stems from uncertainty in coverage of thunderstorms to the east
and southeast of our area (northern and eastern Oklahoma and
eastern Kansas) early this morning. If convection becomes more
widespread this morning and generates more cool outflow, then
the effective front would be farther southwest and west (closer
to Dodge City). Otherwise, given the approaching disturbance
that is lifting northeast in negative tilt fashion and strong
pressure falls on the high plains, the front would redevelop
along I-70, extending from northeast Oklahoma into south central
Kansas and then to near WaKeeney and into northwest Kansas. The
various models should come more into alignment with the 12z
model run after overnight convection is properly taken into
account. Therefore, there are a lot of question marks
remaining and naming exact counties and towns that are favored
for severe storms this evening is just not possible with any
accuracy. However, for those interested in exact
probabilities, based on the SPC outlook, there is a 10% chance
of a significant tornado within 25 miles of a point across much
of central and southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening. The
chances of significant rainfall is of course tied to exact
placement of storms. But generally, ahead of the dryline in the
most air, there is about 10 to 30% chance of any given location
receiving beneficial rainfall that could unfortunately also be
accompanied by destructive hail and wind. The smallest chance
for t-storms (less than 10%) is across extreme southwest Kansas
in the dry air west of the dry line, including Elkhart, Johnson
and Syracuse.

Thunderstorms will end from southwest to northeast this evening
as the upper level system passes. A weak frontal boundary will
pass in the wake of this system, with dry air sweeping eastward.
Thus, Friday will be dry, with southwest winds and highs in the
70s to lower 80s. This system will not have a strong cold surge
associated with it since it is ejecting northeastward, with
surface pressures remaining low in the wake of the front across
the central plains owing to downslope mid level flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The low level moisture that will be swept eastward Thursday
night and early Friday will push back to the north and west
Friday night into Saturday as the next upper level trough
approaches. This system will be even stronger so that
thunderstorms will erupt across south central Kansas by early
to mid afternoon Saturday. The threat for severe weather is
generally along and east of a line from Hays to Kinsley to
Coldwater. Any severe risk farther west than this is unlikely as
the low level moisture is not expected to progress very far
west. Large hail and tornadoes are possible with the storms
Saturday. Coverage of storms is expected to be greater Saturday
than on Friday due to the very strong upper level disturbance
involved. Thus, chances for significant rainfall are higher
(50-70%) for locations such as Medicine Lodge and Stafford, with
decreasing chances to the west. However, keep in mind that any
beneficial rain could also be accompanied by destructive hail
and damaging wind.

In the wake of Saturday`s system, expect slightly cooler and
drier air for Sunday. The various models and their ensembles
suggest the development of zonal mid to upper level flow across
the northern plains by Tuesday, with embedded disturbances. With
Kansas being located south of this strong jet, expect a rapid
warmup, with highs into the upper 70s Monday and 80s Tuesday.
Chances for widespread rain are very low in this pattern. But
with a dryline situated somewhere across the central plains
early to mid next week, isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out, particularly closer to the deeper moisture across south
central Kansas. This is supported by the ensemble means of the
ECMWF/ICON/GFS and CMCE that generally have very low
probabilities (10 to 30%) of rainfall in excess of .5" next
week, with the higher probabilities confined to south central
Kansas and lowest over far southwest and western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Low level moisture was streaming northward into a cool air mass
north of a warm front. Expect thunderstorms overnight in
vicinity of KHYS. Given the warm and moist advection, expect
CIGS to drop to IFR and possibly LIFR by 10-13z before slowly
improving with daytime heating and the passage of a warm front.
Thunderstorms will form near a dry line by 21z, possibly
affecting KGCK and KDDC between 21 and 01z, and KHYS after 00z.
These storms could be severe with hail and damaging wind.
Expect southeast winds to become southerly at 20-25 kts by
18-21z as the warm front passes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Near critical fire weather conditions will be confined to
extreme western Kansas near the Colorado line today. This is
because the surface dryline will be located over far western
Kansas for most of the day. The second tier of southwest Kansas
counties (Stevens to Kearny) may not quite reach critical
conditions, but the red flag warning continues in effect as far
east as Lakin and Hugoton.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon
across much of southwest Kansas as a dry line passes by early
afternoon. Humidity as low as 10% is likely, along with south
to southwest gusts in excess of 35-40 mph.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch