Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000 FXUS63 KDDC 250559 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong weather system will bring strong winds, fire weather, and severe thunderstorms to our area today. - Light snow will filter into our area behind a strong cold front early Monday, lasting through much of the day. - Hard freezes Tuesday and Wednesday morning with lows in the teens to low 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a large, deep, longwave trough is in place over the western CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough rounding its base over NM. Ahead of this wave, a sub-990-mb surface trough has taken shape over eastern CO, with strong cyclonic flow around it bringing 25-30 mph southerly winds with gusts of 35-40 mph to southwest KS. As the shortwave impulse ejects northeastward towards the central plains, the surface low will deepen further to near 980-mb, fostering increasing winds into the 30-35 mph range with gusts of 45-50. Surface observations show a dryline is extending south from the surface low near the KS/CO border, which will mix east during the day today. Behind this feature, plummeting dewpoints along with strong southwest winds will support critical fire weather conditions, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of far southwest KS until 01Z Monday. Ahead of the dryline, strong moisture advection via southerly winds will draw low/mid 50s dewpoints poleward, likely maintaining mostly cloudy skies over the warm sector, resulting in a range of afternoon highs from the low 70s west to low 60s east. Focus now shifts to the potential for severe convection across our area this afternoon and evening. Increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the ejecting shortwave will aid in triggering thunderstorms along the dryline around 20-21Z, which the latest CAMs suggest will be near the US-83 corridor. Thermodynamic profiles will be less than ideal given the aforementioned cloud cover and meager moisture across the warm sector, but very cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will support MLCAPE on the order of 750-1250 J/Kg. On the other hand, wind profiles will be more than sufficient for severe convection, as 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear will exist east of the dryline. Current thinking is supercells and line segments will be the primary storm mode, posing hazards of large hail up to 2" in diameter, and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph as storms race to the northeast. A weak, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but poor theta-e will be very difficult to overcome. Sunday evening, thunderstorms will exit our area to the northeast by around midnight. Tonight, the upper level shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone will begin to pull away to the northeast, dragging a cold front in its wake that will pass through the central plains. Winds will flip to northerly behind the front, and strong cold advection will transport much colder air into southwest KS. Additionally, light wrap-around precipitation will pour into our area early Monday, and swing across our area through much of the day affecting roughly the northwest three quarters of the DDC FA. Nearly all of this precipitation will fall as snow, but accumulations are expected to be minimal as HREF probability of snowfall exceeding 2" is less than 50% for all areas except for a few small pockets over the west/northwest zones. That said, with light snow and strong northerly winds, blowing snow will be a factor, and winter weather headlines may be needed. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Light snow may be ongoing at the beginning of the long term period across the northeast zones, but this should clear out fairly quickly leaving southwest KS precipitation free by or shortly after midnight Tuesday morning. Medium range ensembles suggest the upper level trough axis will cross the High Plains overnight, and DNVA will begin to erode the cloud cover from west to east across southwest KS. This along with weakening northwest winds as the surface low drifts further away and fresh snowpack will optimize radiational cooling, and a hard freeze is expected Tuesday morning as temperatures nosedive into the mid teens northwest to low 20s southeast. Daytime Tuesday through the end of the period, ensembles indicate weak upper level ridging will build across the western CONUS through the end of the long term period, resulting in generally quiet weather for southwest KS other than one more hard freeze Wednesday morning. Expect afternoon highs to increase from the 40s on Tuesday into the low 70s Friday, and the mid/upper 70s by the weekend with no appreciable opportunity for widespread precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Winds will shift to northerly and increase to 25-30 kts in the wake of a cold front between 08-10z. Light snow will develop early this morning at KGCK and then spread eastward through 15-18z as an upper level low moves slowly across western Kansas. Snow and blowing snow could reduce visibilities to 1 to 2 miles or less at times through 00z.
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&& .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084>087.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Finch

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