-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
500
FXUS63 KDDC 042038
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
338 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected from mid-day Monday into the
  afternoon along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge
  City.

- The western limit of severe weather Monday depends on how
  early in the day storms develop.

- A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and
  persist for several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A strong upper level trough along the West Coast early this
afternoon will progress across the Rockies through Sunday. Ahead
of this feature, a cool air mass will be in place across Kansas
Sunday, with moist southerly flow returning in the afternoon. A
weak disturbance embedded in the flow across the southern
plains will result in some low to mid level cloud late tonight
and into Sunday morning. A few sprinkles or light rain showers
are possible, especially near the Oklahoma state line.
Relatively high static stability should preclude significant
amounts of precipitation across southwest Kansas. Expect lows
tonight in the 40s and highs Sunday in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The aforementioned, strong upper level trough will eject across
the central and northern plains Monday in negatively tilted
fashion. The primary surface low will develop across the
northern high plains, with a trailing, dry cold front sweeping
across western Kansas Monday afternoon. A dry line will exist
southward from about the 37th parallel Monday afternoon and the
dry cold front(modified by downslope) will rapidly overtake the
dryline during the day. Given the negative tilt to the upper
level trough, strong mid level cooling around 700mb will take
place, leading to a weakening in the capping inversion. While
the mid levels will be cooling, the lowest levels will be
warming, leading to a steepening of low to mid level lapse
rates. The capping inversion over the moist layer will likely
have eroded sufficiently for surface based storm initiation as
early as noon to 1 PM CDT (17-18 UTC) along a line from WaKeeney
to Dodge City. Given the mid level cooling, there is an
accompanying mid level backing of the wind between 700 and
500mb, which could lead to a weakness in the hodographs and a
lessening of the tornado threat. However, the 0-1 km shear will
be quite favorable for rotating storms between 18-21z(1 to 4 pm)
before storms move east of Hays and Pratt. Very large hail and
damaging winds will likely accompany these storms. The Storm
Prediction Center indicates a coverage of 30% combined severe
weather risk, including locations from Hays to Coldwater and
points east. The latest outlook includes a 10% probability of
"Significant" severe weather. Significant severe weather is
defined as 75+ mph damaging wind gusts, 2" or larger hail,
and/or significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage potential).

After Monday, a tranquil weather pattern will develop across the
central high plains for several days as upper level troughing
shifts from the northern plains into the Midwest. Tuesday will
still be a mild day, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
given continued downslope warming. In the absence of
significant low level moisture, expect strong diurnal
temperature ranges, with highs falling into the lower to mid 70s
and lows falling into the 40s by mid-week. Lows could even fall
into the high 30s across west central Kansas by late week given
the dry air and light winds. However, freezing temperatures are
unlikely. Probabilistically, the ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means
only show 10-20% probabilities of lows less than 40 across
extreme western Kansas, with near 0% chances of 32 degrees or
less. However, experience tells us that lows typically get
colder near the Colorado state line in these regimes than the
various model guidances suggest. Therefore, some readings less
than 40 seem more likely to this forecaster at locations such as
Syracuse, which is located in a valley.

The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means both indicate an upper level
trough forming over the desert southwest next weekend, with
continued upper level troughing over the eastern USA. This is a
relatively cool and stable pattern. However, increasing mid
level moisture along with a mid level thermal gradient could
result in areas of light rain by Saturday or Sunday. Both of the
ensemble means show only 20-40% chances of rainfall .10" or
greater. Thus, the chances for significant rainfall are very
low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Winds will become northeast and then east and decrease to 8 to
10 kts this afternoon as surface high pressure settles over the
central plains and upper Midwest. A weak upper level disturbance
will pass across the southern plains tonight, resulting in some
low to mid level cloud (MVFR CIGS) forming at KLBL and KDDC by
10-12z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Counties in far western Kansas have some greenup; but there is
still some risk for wildfires on critical fire weather days.
Gusty west winds and low humidity will lead to critical fire
weather conditions over far western Kansas Monday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch