Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171708
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A strong upper level shortwave will move from the northern Rockies
today into the Northern Plains tonight. This will help push a cold
front through the area this evening with very strong northerly
winds expected. In fact, wind gusts look to approach high wind
warning criteria, especially across far western Kansas. Before
this front moves through, winds will generally be from an easterly
direction this morning, shifting to the southwest this afternoon
as a warm front glides through the area from southwest to
northeast. This warm front only looks to move up towards the I-70
corridor this evening before being overtaken by the aforementioned
cold front. Only a few high clouds are expected today, otherwise
expect mostly clear skies. As for temperatures, highs today look
to reach into the upper 70s along the I-70 corridor with upper 80s
anticipated elsewhere. Lows tonight look to range from the mid
30s along the KS/CO border to mid 40s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Dry conditions continue Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level
ridge moves over the Rockies and eventually through the Plains.
Towards the surface, high pressure will be the dominate feature
across western Kansas during this time period. Strong northerly
winds are expected to continue across western Kansas during the
day Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next storm system moves into the
western United States Wednesday night then into the Four Corner`s
Region Thursday. Winds shift back to a southerly direction
Thursday as the area of high pressure oozes eastward and troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado. Cloud cover will then
increase from west to east Thursday night with far western Kansas
having a chance of precipitation after midnight. Precipitation
chances increase across the entire forecast area Friday and
continue into Saturday. This system then moves out of the area
Saturday night with dry conditions Sunday into Monday. As of now,
all precipitation looks to fall as rain, with the exception of
west central Kansas Saturday night where there could be a mix of
rain and snow. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the
60s Wednesday and Thursday, 50s and low 60s Friday, then in the
50s Saturday and Sunday. Lows will generally be in the 30s to low
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF locations with only few
upper level cirrus at best with unrestricted visibility. Winds
will be the key player this afternoon and over night with gusty
southwest winds turning out of the northwest between 00-01Z as
high as 45-50kts before diminishing after 06Z to gusts up to 25kts
through the end of the period. The wind shift is due to a cold
frontal boundary that will push through this evening with a strong
pressure gradient behind it coupled with good mixing of the cooler
air. Expect the highest winds between the 00-06Z time frame for
all TAF sites right behind the aforementioned frontal passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

This afternoon will see a return of red flag conditions with
relative humidities down to 5-15 percent and gusty southwest
winds up to 30-35mph. Winds will shift out of the northwest just
before sunset making fire weather a challenge if any fires start
before a cold front pushes through this evening.

Wednesday will see significant fire weather risk for most of the
CWA with a diminished area confined to the western counties for
Thursday afternoon with cooler afternoon highs for most of the
central and eastern portions of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  40  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  90  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  89  39  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  39  62  33 /   0  10   0   0
P28  87  46  69  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 1
AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-
074>079-084>087.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Hovorka_42



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