Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222037
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
337 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

...Updated Fire Weather Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

The weather pattern this week continues to feel more like mid-summer
for Western Kansas, being characterized by weak flow aloft and
above normal temperatures. A mid-level low currently near the
Great Basin region will slowly lift northeast today into the
northern Plains through Thursday morning, when it enters central
Canada, and another mid-level low begins to enter northern
California. This will provide southwest flow over western Kansas
through Friday. Shortwaves embedded in the weak southwest flow, in
concert with lee troughing in eastern Colorado and modest
moisture and instability, will offer thunderstorm/shower chances
each day this week through Friday.

Today/Tonight: lee troughing continues to strengthen in eastern
Colorado this afternoon, bringing a 4-6 mb pressure gradient
across southwest Kansas, and therefore another gusty day with
south/southeast wind at 15-20 mph; gusts to 30. The southeast wind
will cause boundary layer moisture to increase, though mix
through the day, ahead of the next shortwave ejecting into the
High Plains, bringing with it a subtle vort max. This will bring
western Kansas another chance for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. However, with only 10-20
knots deep layer shear, weak instability, and no large-scale
forcing, severe storms are not expected. Due to low confidence in
thunderstorm development/location, have kept pops under 20
percent. Thunderstorms that do form will move out of the area late
Tuesday night. Temperatures overnight will only drop into the
60s.

Wednesday: Gusty once again due to lee troughing in eastern
Colorado, with southerly/southeasterly wind flowing at 15-20 mph,
and gusts to 30 in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Another
shortwave with a subtle vorticity max coming from the
aforementioned mid-level low entering Canada will bring another
chance for convection starting Wednesday afternoon into the
evening, mainly west of highway 283. Some of these storms will
have a chance of becoming severe, with 60 mph wind and hail up to
quarters. Have adjusted pops up slightly to agree with neighbors.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Wednesday night, temperatures will stay in the mid-to upper 60s
due to the increased cloud cover.

Thursday, the surface low in eastern Colorado begins to dislodge
and move east, becoming stationary north of our region, leaving
Western Kansas in the warm sector. Temperatures will reach the
lower 90s, and there will be another chance for thunderstorms
Thursday night.

This weekend, an upper level ridge will set in over western
Kansas, limiting thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will reach the
lower to mid-90s each day.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper level ridge pushes east, and a
closed mid-level low brings the next possibility for organized
convection for Western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals through the forecast
period. Lee troughing continues to strengthen today in
northeastern Colorado, increasing the pressure gradient and
causing south/southeasterly wind at 15-20 knots, gusting to 25-30
knots. Wind decreases shortly after dark to less than 12 knots
through the night. An upper level shortwave may bring scattered
to widely scattered showers to Western Kansas this
afternoon/evening, however with little forcing, confidence is low
on location of storms. Therefore, have left the possibility of
convection out of the TAFS at this time, and will continue to
monitor storm development.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Limited fire weather concerns today due to  southerly winds at
15-20 mph, with gusts to 30, and relative humidity dropping to
30-40 percent in the afternoon. Wednesday, will present very
similar conditions in the afternoon. Thursday, wind will flow
15-20 mph from the south/southeast, with gusts to 25mph, however
lowest relative humidity will drop to 20 to 30 percent toward the
Colorado border in the afternoon. All three days offer
thunderstorm/shower chances that may lessen fire weather concerns.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  88  64  90 /  20  20  10  20
GCK  62  88  63  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  61  86  61  91 /  20  20  30  10
LBL  63  87  63  91 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  65  88  65  90 /  20  10  10  20
P28  64  90  67  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Reynolds



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