Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1211 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An upper level ridge will continue to move across the central
plains for this evening into tonight. A mild 850 mb airmass
(12-15C) along with stronger 850 mb winds should keep the area
mixed enough that lows will stay mild tonight in the low to mid
40s. A large trough located off the Pacific coast will lead to
warmer and windy conditions again on Thursday.

Thursday a chunk of energy from the main low in the Pacific will
head eastward into the Rockies and eventually the central Plains.
A negative tilt trough will develop and a surface low around
Limon, CO will start to deepen. As it does so winds should
increase out of the southwest through the day and 850 temperatures
will warm to around 20C. New record highs for Dodge and Garden
City could happen with forecast highs in the mid 80s. The current
fire weather watch for the western areas will likely be upgraded
to a red flag warning with the relative humidity falling to 10-15%
and winds breezy out of the southwest at 20-35 mph. Critical fire
risk is already outlined by the SPC for the far southwest and it
will most likely be expanded to include most areas west of highway

As the low moves eastward through Thursday night we could see
shifting of the winds which will be important to monitor should
any fires develop Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Active long term forecast for the area with another storm system
moving through the region on Sunday and fire danger risks present
on Friday and potentially again with the aforementioned weekend

Friday the storm system still is forecast to move along I-70
according to the Euro and along the Kansas-Nebraska border
according to the GFS. Winds are expected to stay strong out of the
west and eventually northwest through the day with the lowest
relative humidity along the Oklahoma border.

Sunday another negative tilt trough moves out of the Rockies into
the central plains. A surface low develops in northwest Kansas and
then progresses into the central part of the state by late in the
day. A band of precipitation develops mainly along and north of
I-70 during this time and continues through Sunday night. Still
uncertain how much rain could develop with the ongoing drought and
lack of moisture but at least for areas around Hays this will
present a decent chance of rain. Monday once we get behind the
storm system the winds will turn strong out of the northwest and
this could potentially present another fire risk.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

South to southwest winds will prevail through the period. Winds
will pick up in speed by late morning, topping in the 20 to 24
knot range at GCK, DDC, and LBL with higher gusts. The dry
downslope southwest winds will lead to a continuation of VFR
flight category. No significant wind shift is forecast through
this TAF period.


Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Red flag warning will be issued shortly for Thursday afternoon for
areas mainly along and west of Highway 283. Relative humidity will
fall to around 10-15% by the afternoon with winds out of the
southwest at 20-40 mph.

Friday as a storm system moves into central Kansas the winds will
shift to the northwest and stay strong at 30-45 mph with potential
higher gusts from sunrise through the mid afternoon. Lowest
relative humidities of 10-15% will be roughly along and south of
a line from Scott City to Dodge City to Medicine Lodge.


DDC  44  85  48  68 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  40  85  43  66 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  42  80  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  41  83  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  40  80  48  64 /   0   0  10  10
P28  43  78  52  73 /   0   0  10   0


Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>081-084>090.



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