-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
148
FXUS63 KDDC 140700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Periods of showers and storms possible from Tuesday night
  through Thursday.

- Marginal risk of severe weather Tuesday night and Wednesday
  night. Storms will be strong to marginally severe with hail up
  to quarters and 60 mph gusts.

- The weekend will be warmer and dry.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a departing
upper low in north central Missouri and NVA with subsidence
across Kansas leading to mostly clear skies. A 1008 mb high is
also leading to light winds.

Today should be warmer as 850 mb temperatures will be 4C
warmer than yesterday in the eastern zones and 7C warmer in the
west. Surface winds will also turn to the southeast by late
morning as a warm front moves through western Kansas during the
day and an upper level ridge moves into the central plains.
Highs should reach into the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight a shortwave in eastern Colorado will lead to a surface
low developing and a weak frontal boundary will set up from
southeast Colorado to north central Kansas. CAM models have
scattered storms developing in northeast Colorado and northwest
Kansas in the vicinity of the low and frontal boundary in the
late afternoon to early evening hours and then moving through
our northern zones between 00-07Z. Highest probability of rain
(40-50% POPs) will be roughly between highway 50 and I-70 with
rainfall amounts in the thunderstorms having around a 60% chance
of reaching a quarter inch. CAPE values ahead of the storms will
be around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values are around 30
kts so severe risk should be limited to some downburst winds and
maybe some hail.

Wednesday the storms should depart by sunrise and with
subsidence as the upper level wave departs and cooler northeast
winds through the day this should keep the rain and storm
chances low through southwest Kansas. The main upper level wave
is not forecast to reach Kansas until after sunset so the POPs
will be limited to around the vicinity of where the cold front
stalls in northern Oklahoma. Highs will be in the upper 70s in
the north to the low 80s in the south.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Dry weather can be expected through the weekend and into early
next week in the wake of the upper level system passing
Wednesday night. Mean upper level ridging will gradually shift
from the Rockies to the plains. Plenty of sun along with south
to southwest boundary layer winds will allow for warmer
temperatures, with highs reaching the lower to possibly mid 90s
on Saturday. A weak front may knock highs down into the 80s for
Sunday and Monday. Probabilistically, the various model ensemble
means indicate 10% or less chances of .1" or more during the
Saturday to Monday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals with winds in the
afternoon at around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts. After 00Z a few
storms will move from northwest Kansas into north central Kansas
and we could have VCTS for GCK, DDC, and HYS between 03-06Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Tatro