238
FXUS63 KDDC 030428
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorm complex is expected
  Friday night, favoring the northeast half of our area.

- Strong weather system early next week will likely only bring
  precipitation to the far northeast/eastern zones Monday, while
  all other zones are dry-slotted.

- Generally quiet weather Tuesday/Wednesday with above normal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal
broad, longwave troughing is in place west of the Mississippi
River, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, and longwave
ridging to the east. At the surface, observations show strong
northerly winds across southwest KS behind last night`s cold
front. These winds are drawing much cooler air equatorward this
afternoon, resulting in highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight,
winds will weaken substantially as surface high pressure moves
into the central plains, and combine with partly cloudy skies to
support at least modest radiational cooling fostering lows
dropping into the 40s.

Daytime Friday, short range guidance agrees an upper level
shortwave trough will dig east-southeast from the northern
Intermountain West into the north-central Rockies. Ahead of this
feature, a surface lee cyclone will develop and deepen over
eastern CO, causing south to southeasterly winds to increase
over southwest KS in response. However, any warming effect these
winds have will be somewhat offset by at least partly cloudy
skies, and afternoon temperatures will only be marginally warmer
than today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
agree the above mentioned shortwave trough will continue east to
the northern plains, sending a cold front southward through our
area. There is strong ensemble support for this frontal passage
being accompanied by an MCS, with the ECMWF EPS and GEFS both
show probability of QPF > 0.1" in the 50-80% range for at least
the northeast half to 2/3rds of our area. Additionally, this MCS
may be marginally severe given 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear,
although meager instability (CAPE < 600 J/Kg) should limit
severe coverage.

Over the weekend, medium range ensembles show a powerful upper
low moving onto the western coast and into the Intermountain
West by 00Z Monday. A few weak, lead shortwaves may eject out
of the Desert Southwest into the central plains bringing a
chance for precipitation across our area, but confidence is not
high, and pops were limited to the slight chance (15-24%) to
chance (25-54%) categories. Otherwise, temperatures will hover
around normal (low-mid 70s) with afternoon highs in the mid 60s
to low 70s Saturday to the low to mid 70s Sunday.

Early next week, ensembles eject the significant, negatively-
tilted upper level trough onto the High Plains daytime Monday.
The timing/location of this trough by 00Z Tuesday suggests
southwest KS will be mostly dry-slotted by this wave, with
strong westerly winds, warm temperatures, and fire weather
prevailing. That said, the far northeast/east zones may get
lucky with some afternoon showers/thunderstorms, but confidence
is not super high as ECMWF EPS and GEFS probability of QPF >
0.1" is only in the 20-40% range. Once this wave passes, the
remainder of the long term period appears quiet as ensembles
show southwest KS will sit on the southern periphery of longwave
troughing centered over the northern plains. Temperatures will
be 5-10 degrees above normal with afternoon highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Winds will gradually veer from the east/northeast at the onset
of this TAF period...to a southeasterly direction by daybreak.
By mid morning, most terminals will be in a south-southeast wind
at around 15 knots sustained, if not a touch stronger. With the
exception of LBL, terminals will be VFR flight category. LBL is
forecast to see MVFR flight category due to BKN-OVC stratus in
the 2000-3000 foot layer. The probabilities of MVFR flight
category farther north are too low (less than 50% chance of
occurrence) to include in this TAF.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Umscheid