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000
FXUS63 KDDC 221020
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwesterly winds are expected Monday afternoon,
  sustained in the 25-35 mph range with gusts to 45+ mph.

- Cold front Monday night/early Tuesday morning will bring
  another day of strong winds, this time out of the north to
  northeast sustained in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 40 mph.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening,
  although plenty of uncertainty remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

08Z RAP upper air analysis reveals northwesterly flow is in
place atop the central plains between weak ridging over the
western CONUS and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS.
Short range guidance suggests a strong upper level shortwave
trough now over southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada, as per latest
water vapor satellite imagery, will dig southeast into the
northern plains daytime Monday. The deepening surface low ahead
of this feature will aid in tightening the pressure gradient
across southwest KS, yielding the classic windy spring day for
our area as southwesterly winds become sustained in the 25-35
mph range with gusts of 45+ mph by early afternoon. These
downsloping winds will also contribute to a substantial increase
in temperatures compared to yesterday as afternoon highs reach
into the upper 70s southeast to mid 80s northwest. Fire weather
conditions may materialize as well, although the lowest minimum
relative humidity will not overlap with the strongest winds.
Still, fire weather headlines may be forthcoming.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, the aforementioned strong
shortwave trough will continue to dig into the upper Midwest,
sending a cold front southward through southwest KS early
Tuesday morning. This should be a dry frontal passage, but a
stray shower or two Monday night favoring the northern zones
cannot be ruled out. Daytime Tuesday, northerly winds in the
wake of the front will increase into the 20-30 mph range gusting
to 40 mph, peaking around early afternoon. These winds will also
facilitate cold advection, and allow afternoon highs to decrease
into the low 70s northwest to upper 70s/near 80 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Yet another day of strong winds is expected Wednesday afternoon,
this time out of the southeast, as lee cyclogenesis begins ahead
of the next upper level wave moving onto the west coast. Medium
range ensembles suggest light precipitation is possible owing to
theta-e advection via these southeasterly winds, as probability
of QPF > 0.01" reaches the 50-70% range mainly north of US-50.
However, upper level shortwave ridging overhead should suppress
most activity, so confidence is low. Afternoon temperatures on
Wednesday should be fairly cool under mostly cloudy skies, with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Medium range ensembles indicate the upper level wave will have
reached the Desert Southwest by 12Z Thursday, followed by a
rapid northeastward ejection during the day. A surface lee
cyclone in eastern CO will deepen to ~992-mb in response, with
an attendant dryline draped near US-83 00Z Friday. Strong
south-southeast winds ahead of the dryline will allow theta-e
advection to continue, with at least low 60s dewpoints becoming
established. As forcing for ascent ahead of the upper wave
increases in the vicinity of the dryline Thursday evening,
isolated thunderstorm development is possible within a
CAPE/shear parameter space supportive of organized convection.
That said, 700-mb temperatures of +8-9C will represent a stout
capping inversion, which will be difficult to overcome. If this
cap can be breached, supercells capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be possible, and this thinking lines up
with the latest SPC convective outlook which places roughly the
eastern 2/3rds of our CWA in a 15% probability of severe.

Daytime Friday, ensembles forecast the shortwave trough will
wrap up into a closed, negatively-tilted low over NE as the
next wave reloads over the western CONUS, resulting in southwest
KS being within the dry-slot of the associated surface low.
Elevated downsloping west-southwest winds will be the result,
which will contribute to warmer afternoon highs in the 80s along
with fire weather conditions.

Over the weekend, medium range ensembles eject yet another upper
level trough onto the High Plains, reigniting the potential for
severe thunderstorms across southwest KS. As always, the degree
and location of any risk area will be highly dependent on
mesoscale factors, which have very low predictability at this
forecast range. Therefore, this weekend system will need to be
monitored closely over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
modest southerly winds will veer slightly to south-southwesterly
and ramp up significantly shortly after sunrise into the 22-27
kt range with gusts of 32-37 kts by mid-morning. These strong
winds will persist until around sunset when the loss of PBL
mixing allows winds to relax somewhat, but 15-20 kt winds
gusting to 30 kts will remain at DDC and LBL. Near the end of
the period, a cold front will pass through southwest KS,
resulting in an abrupt wind shift out of the north with
sustained winds aob 15 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer