000
FXUS63 KDDC 201900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool tonight with lows in the 30s.

- Mild Sunday.

- Warm and windy Monday with higher fire danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A typical cool and moist upslope northeast wind pattern prevails
today across the FA. This has brought in cooler temperatures readings
and even areas of light snow this morning. The overall UL trof associated
with this will continue to move east through the day. Areas of very
light precipitation will gradually diminish in areal coverage as
the afternoon wears on. There will be plenty of lingering cloud cover
through the early morning hours. For lows tonight, it will be rather
cool. Lows around freezing will be likely for the NW zones, where
mid and upper 30s are expected for the rest of the FA. The NW counties
(Morton to Finney to Ellis and points NW) do not need frost/freeze
headlines until 24 April. As such, the coldest readings are not collocated
where actual frost/freeze headlines are needed. The net result is
no frost/freeze headlines for tonight. Otherwise, for Sunday, pleasant
highs are expected with values in the 60s. Winds will be light and
variable for the first half of Sunday. The winds will eventually
become southerly as the high shifts off to the east of the CWA. No
precipitation is expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Another upper level low will move across the northern Rockies Monday.
This will set the stage for stronger WAA and downslope flow downstream
across western Kansas. As such, much warmer highs are expected with
deterministic data in the 80s for half of the FA. For ensemble data,
EPS has >90% probabilities of highs >80F Monday for the western zones.
The combination of the warmer highs and stronger winds will set
the stage for another higher fire danger day Monday. The worst conditions
will be near the Colorado border. One minor good thing that is in
the EC is higher dewpoints advecting in while the southerly/southwesterly
flow continues. Something to watch. This may help to mitigate the
fire danger slightly for the central and eastern zones. Again, will
have to watch for trends over time to see how much boundary layer
moisture will return to the FA. The pleasant weather pattern will
continue for much of the upcoming business week. Low level moisture
will continue to advect by Thursday. Depending on how the EML evolves
will determine if there will be storms or not Thursday. 700 hPa temperatures
on the EC are fairly warm. Still, this is very uncertain this far
out, so will have to watch trends over time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cigs range from IFR to VFR this morning. A weather disturbance moving
through has brought these cigs and areas of light rain and even snow
with it. This will continue for the next few hours. A moist upslope
NE flow pattern will continue. This will keep MVFR to low VFR cigs
in the TAFs through much of the period. Winds will continue NE 10-20
kt today and become southerly 5-15 kt tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden