Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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275
FXUS63 KDDC 182321
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

A cold front has pushed through the entire CWA in the over night
hours with gusty northwest winds behind it due to a strong
pressure gradient still present. This will relax over time this
afternoon diminishing the northwest winds before becoming light
and variable less than 10mph after sunset and over night due to
night time cooling and a temperature inversion setting up in the
low levels at the surface. Upper level ridging will set back into
place across the Rocky Mountains giving a dry northwest flow for
western Kansas and through the end of the week. High pressure at
the surface extends from the north centered over the Dakotas
keeping winds light and turning more out of the southeast
Thursday. This will help to set up a more moist low level flow as
an upper level low currently off the Californian coast pushes
across the southwest and four corner region heading into Friday
increasing rain chances significantly.

In the meantime, high temperatures this afternoon will only reach
the 60s due to the aforementioned cold front that has pushed
through the CWA. Clear skies and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop over night with Thursday morning lows only in
the low 30s with many northern counties below the freezing point.
Southeast flow Thursday will bring in a deeper moisture flux into
the area with winds only 10-15mph and temperatures again only in
the 60s. Relative humidity values will stay in the upper 20 to low
30 percent range. Skies will remain mostly clear Thursday under
the high pressure at the surface and upper level ridge pushing
closer over us. An influx of upper level moisture will begin to
advect into the region from the southwest due to the
aforementioned low showing the signs of changes to come for Friday
and heading into the weekend. Upper level divergence ahead of the
low increases over time allowing the low to deepen as it pushes
across the southwest before pushing its way into western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Widespread beneficial rain expected Friday and Saturday...

Models including the latest 12z ECMWF continue to display
impressive consistency regarding the expected upper low passage
Friday through Saturday. Model consistency continues to allow for
forecaster confidence that widespread rainfall will be received
late Friday through Saturday. Will it be enough to end the
drought? Absolutely not. But the expected rainfall will alleviate
the ongoing wildfire threat some, and assist with the delayed
vegetation green up.

Closed low over Utah at sunrise Friday will be truly cutoff from
the northern jet stream. As such, the center of the cyclone will
only slowly wobble to near the Four Corners by 7 pm Friday. This
slow movement is critical for producing rain in SW KS, and is the
component we have been missing for the past several months. The
slow movement allows strong SE winds to advect plenty of moisture
into SW KS through Friday. At the same time, forcing for ascent
and diffluence aloft will overspread the western zones through
Friday afternoon. As the forcing interacts with the ample moisture
supply and warm conveyor belt, all models agree rain showers and
embedded thunder will spread mainly west of US 83 Friday
afternoon. Included isolated thunder along the Oklahoma border
during the afternoon, given the dynamic support and the time of
the year, but surface-based instability will be absent, and
elevated instability will be limited. Just a nice gentle (albeit
wind blown) rain. SE winds will gust 30-40 mph as the rain moves
in late Friday.

Friday Night...warm advection rain and embedded thunder moves west
to east across SW KS, with measurable rain expected in all zones.
QPF of 0.25-0.75" is probable during this time. Rain coverage will
wane for a few hours Saturday morning as the upper low moves SE
into the Texas panhandle. 12z ECMWF has jogged a bit north again,
with the closed low in NW Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. This bodes
well for the SE 1/2 of the CWA, as widespread stratiform
deformation/wraparound rain will result. In fact, 12z ECMWF QPF
fields would argue for more rain through Saturday than the current
model blend/forecast suggests. At any rate, confidence in the
desperately needed rain is high.

Cyclone ejects to eastern Oklahoma Saturday night, during which
time the rain will rapidly end. Sunday and Monday will feature dry
weather with moderating temperatures.

Medium range models are in good agreement swinging a shortwave and
attendant cold front through SW KS during the Tuesday timeframe.
Some light rain showers will likely be in the vicinity as this
cold front passes, but with NW flow and limited moisture,
significant rainfall is not expected. Low/slight chance pops were
retained in the grids. Wednesday morning may be quite cold if the
ECMWF verifies, depicting a 1032 mb Canadian surface high settling
over western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty northwest winds
this afternoon will diminish rapidly by the beginning of the period
as boundary layer mixing shuts off. Light and variable winds this
evening but should eventually veer around to the east and southeast
by Thursday morning. Surface pressure will fall in the lee of the
Rockies on Thursday and the increasing pressure gradient across
western Kansas will result in southeast winds gusting to 20-25 knots
by afternoon, especially at Garden City and Liberal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  65  39  61 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  32  65  40  56 /   0   0  10  50
EHA  35  68  39  51 /   0   0  10  60
LBL  34  67  40  57 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  30  60  37  60 /   0   0   0  20
P28  35  65  38  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061>063-074>078-084>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lowe
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard



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