Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152059
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

High surface pressure will settle over central KS overnight allowing
light and variable winds to develop by early Monday morning. This
very dry airmass should radiate strongly with the subsident region
of the upper ridge aloft, and dew point depressions down around 1
degree or less by 12 z in central Kansas. Light to moderate
southeasterly winds will be found over most of the area through the
day Monday marking two thermodynamically separate airmasses.
Recirculated cool air over the central Kansas counties will limit to
around 60 degrees while extreme southwest KS will likely reach the
low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Strong shortwave moves through the area Tuesday night with potential
for a few hours of near high wind criteria northwesterly surface
winds behind the cold front. Mixing may be somewhat limited as the
timing looks to be more in the overnight hours than the well mixed
higher lapse rate daytime. Prior to the fast moving front,
temperatures will warm homogeneously into the 80s across the forecast
area, possibly pushing 90 degrees near Oklahoma.

By Friday through Saturday, potential increasing for a precipitation
event that may significant rain of an inch or more for parts of the
areas (central Kansas), with slightly less farther west. The GFS and
ECMWF have generally been showing such solutions for a couple of
days now.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2018

Current trends support the HRRR surface elements RH and wind
gusts forecast for red flag conditions across a portion of the
area. A large portion of the area between U.S. Highways 83 and
183 should see frequent gust to 30 mph with relative humidity
already at 15 percent and likely to drop a couple of more percent.
A Red Flag Warning has been posted until 7 pm for these areas.

Red Flag Warnings have been posted for the extreme southwest
counties on Monday, and most of the area behind the warm front
on Tuesday.


&&


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR flight category is expected through this TAF period given a
quite dry airmass lingering over western Kansas. Gusty northwest
winds to around 30 knots should rapidly decouple from the surface
around 00 UTC and winds will become light overnight. Mixing by
mid morning will resume the gustiness with a wind shift out of
the southeast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  68  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  71  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  83  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  32  80  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  21  60  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
P28  26  64  45  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ044-045-063-
064-077>080-087>090.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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