Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Highs today in the mid 80s to near 90 still looks on track given
the net 24 hour change of 850mb temperatures from 00z Tuesday to
00z Wednesday of +3 to +5 warm up and the latest BUFR soundings
from the NAM and GFS. There will also be a chance for some late
day/evening convection ahead of the next upper level trough as it
approaches from the southwest. Locations most favorable for this
late day and evening convection will be west of highway 283. The
chance for any of these storms that may develop to become severe
is not expected. Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph may be possible from a
few of these storms late day or evening given the forecast high
cloud bases and downdraft cape.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Models still showing an area of low pressure at the surface
deepening along the lee of the Rockies mid week as the upper low
over the Southwest United States weakens as it gets lifted
northeast towards the Northern Rockies. Late day convection will
once again be possible Wednesday night along this surface
boundary which models now is forecast to be located near the
Kansas and Colorado. Confidence is not high on how far east to
include this convection early Wednesday night so will stay close
to the latest forecast guidance at this time. Main hazards
Wednesday will be gusty winds up to 60 mph possibly some hail as
large as quarters.

As the upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves out into
the Plains on Thursday there will be another chance for late day
or evening storms across western Kansas. Also a weak surface
boundary/cold front will take aim at western Kansas late week but
now the latest models suggests that this front may end up becoming
stationary just north of southwest Kansas late Thursday and
Friday. This will favor keeping temperatures on the warm side late
week into the weekend period. Highs late week and over the
weekend are expected to be in the 90s for all of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Southerly winds at 10 knots or less at 12z Tuesday will increase
into the 15 to 20 knot range between 15z and 18z Tuesday as a
trough of low pressure at the surface deepens across eastern
Colorado. These winds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots after sunset
as the boundary layer winds decouple. BUFR soundings indicate VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours. Increased lift ahead of an
approaching upper level disturbance may bring a few widely
scattered to western Kansas. The probability is for it is less
than 30 percent so will not include any chance for convection in
any of the 12z TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  20
GCK  87  62  88  63 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  85  60  86  62 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  88  64  87  64 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  87  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  20
P28  89  65  90  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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