Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

...Updated Short and Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Main forecast challenge today is thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Mid-level low pressure over northeastern Idaho
will continue to lift northeast this afternoon, bringing upper-
level ridging over the High Plains. An embedded shortwave in the
southwest flow over western Kansas is increasing storm chances
this afternoon, with CAM agreement on two main areas of
thunderstorm development. The first, visible satellite imagery
this afternoon is showing storm growth in a line from roughly
just east of Meade State park to east of Dodge City, with cirrus
clouds lingering north and west of this line. With 1500 to 2000
J/kg MLCAPE and little MLCIN along the line, there is enough
instability to support marginal thunderstorm development, but the
environment is lacking shear to sustain upscale growth. CAMs do
agree on storm development in this area lasting a short time this
afternoon. How far they move north and east will be determined if
the cirrus clouds can burn off to allow for instability. The
second area of thunderstorms development is in far southwest
Kansas roughly after 6pm. This is the same area that received the
beneficial rain this morning. Currently, visible satellite shows
the area with cirrus clouds. Storms have already developed in
northwestern New Mexico/northeastern Texas, and CAMs show these
storms moving east into far Southwest Kansas, and extending
through Texas. How much they affect Southwestern Kansas will be
determined if cirrus clouds can burn off over that area to allow
instability to build, and if the storms can tap into the low level
jet that develops this evening. Have left low pops in through the
evening due to uncertainty. Thunderstorms that develop may be
marginally severe, with 60 mph wind gusts and up to quarter size
hail, especially in the storms that may develop in far Southwest
Kansas. Temperatures overnight will stay in the 60s.

Thursday, lee troughing in eastern Colorado continues, bringing
another gusty day to Southwest Kansas. Another shortwave moves
through Thursday night, bringing yet another afternoon for storm
chances. With weak flow aloft and therefore weak shear, storms
that develop should not be severe. Highs on Thursday will reach
the upper 80s/lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

On Friday, a cold front moves through the region, though the
airmass behind the front won`t feel much different as temperatures
Friday will still reach into the mid to upper 90s. Wind will
finally subside as the trough axis moves through the region. There
is a chance for storms to develop behind the front Friday evening.

Upper level ridging builds into the region for Memorial Day
Weekend, which will limit storm chances on Saturday. However, we
will be battling the heat on both Saturday and Sunday with
temperatures into the mid-90s and possibly 100s near the Oklahoma
border. Storm chances return Sunday night due to a shortwave ahead
of an upper level low.

The upper level low begins moving northeast on Monday, bringing
southwest flow over western Kansas once again for the beginning of
the week, with embedded shortwaves offering storm chances each


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Main aviation concerns this TAF period will be gusty southerly
wind and potential thunderstorms late afternoon/evening. Lee
troughing has increased the pressure gradient this afternoon,
causing southerly wind at 15-20 knots, with gusts to 25-30 knots.
Wind should decrease after dark with the loss of daytime heating
to less than 12 knots. An upper level disturbance will bring the
chance for thunderstorms. Highest confidence for VCTS near KHYS
and KLBL between 20Z and 22Z. Have included TSRA for KLBL for 3-5Z
based on consistency with CAMs, but will continue to monitor
storm development. Ceilings will lower tonight ahead of the
disturbance, but terminals should remain under VFR conditions.


DDC  88  64  90  64 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  86  64  91  62 /  70  30  20  10
EHA  85  61  91  62 /  40  30  20   0
LBL  87  65  92  64 /  70  30  20  10
HYS  90  67  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
P28  90  67  90  66 /  10  10  20  10




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
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