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000
FXUS63 KDDC 170338
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A beautiful spring day Wednesday with sunshine, light winds,
  and warm afternoon temperatures.

- A strong cold front is expected early Thursday morning, with
  strong north winds and sharply cooler temperatures Thursday.

- A second strong cold front will reinforce the cool air on
  Saturday, bringing temperatures much below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

18z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a surging area
of stronger winds and developing blowing dust from Scott City to
Elkhart and this band of stronger winds could lead to high wind
criteria later this afternoon for the counties in the high winds
warning. The departing surface and 500 mb low is located in
northeast Nebraska.

Tonight as the storm system continues to progress north and east
into Minnesota we should see the winds start to relax after
sunset as an area of high pressure builds in the Texas
panhandle. Winds should subside to 5-15 mph by midnight.
Otherwise with subsidence in the upper levels we should see
clearing skies and lows in the lower to mid 40s.

Wednesday should have little to no impactful weather. Winds will
turn to the south to southwest with a lee side surface low
developing in eastern Colorado during the afternoon with a
passing shortwave in the Rockies. 850 mb temps will warm to
21-22 (C) with sunny skies through the day and highs will reach
into the lower to mid 80s.

Wednesday night momentum from an upper level trough in the
northern plains will push the surface low eastward and a strong
cold front will race through southwest Kansas late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A tight postfrontal pressure
gradient is indicating we will have gusty winds nearing sunrise
Thursday morning with the 12Z HRRR 48 hour forecast showing
20-30 kt sustained with pockets of 40-50 kt gusts. The stronger
cold air advection should hold off until the during the day on
Thursday so lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Winds will continue to be strong on Thursday along with cold air
advection through the day. 850 mb temps during the day will only
warm from 2 (C) in the mid morning to 5 (C) in the afternoon.
Highs will only reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s. EPS
ensembles also have an area from highway 83 on east of 60-100%
chance of 34 kt gusts or higher from 18-00Z suggesting that
strong winds will likely continue through much of the day on
Thursday before relaxing after sunset with a high pressure
center moving in.

Upper level winds stay fairly zonal for Friday and then another
shortwave in the northern plains will drop a second strong cold
front through western Kansas on Saturday with daytime 850 mb
temperatures falling to around 0 (C). Deterministic and ensemble
models are also acting fairly optimistic about some rain
developing in the upslope flow and the post frontal 700 mb lift
with some 30-40% chance of 0.1 inch or more in the EPS and GEFS
ensembles however given the lower level moisture doesn`t look
too promising I would tend to cut back expectations on
precipitation this weekend.

Sunday morning we will have to monitor for the possibility of
frost along and north of a Liberal to Larned line as NBMv4.1
forecast lows are at 31-34.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Excellent flying weather is expected through 18z Wed, with
VFR/SKC and light winds. After 18z Wed, southeast winds will
return to the airports, with some modest gusts of 20-22 kts
at DDC/GCK. A strong cold front is expected just after this
TAF period, around 12z Thu, with intense north winds gusting
to near 40 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner