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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire danger/severe weather possible on Monday

- High winds and blowing dust likely on Tuesday

- Temperatures trending cooler towards the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

18z observations and RAP upper air analysis show a large upper
low spinning through much of California and Nevada with the jet
stream ahead of the low producing a ridge in the central plains.
This has led to plenty of sunshine all across the region.
Afternoon temperatures have already reached into the upper 80s
to lower 90s and Dodge City has already set a record high of 92
(as of this discussion) at 1 PM.

Tonight the upper low will track into central Utah and the nose
of the jet streak will move into central Colorado which will
start to deepen a surface low in northeast Colorado to around
998 mb by sunrise. Winds at the surface in response to the low
will start to turn more to the south to southeast and moisture
advection into our eastern zones should bring in an area of
stratus clouds and dewpoint temperatures reaching into the upper
50s to lower 60s. With the areas of moisture in our eastern
zones lows should fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s and lows in
the west will fall into the 40s.

Monday the main topic of interest will be the fire danger, wind,
and areas of patchy blowing dust. Fire threat looks greatest
along and west of highway 283 where a red flag warning is in
effect. Winds will increase through the day as the surface low
deepens in northeast Colorado to 989 mb and the nose of the
upper jet will enter into southwest Kansas by the late
afternoon. Wind speeds should increase to 20-30 mph with gusts
to 40 mph and humidity values will fall to 10%. With such dry
soils this will also lead to another good setup for some blowing
dust. East of 283 the moisture should stick around much of the
day to mitigate the fire danger somewhat.

Monday night will be the main time of the severe threat. At this
point there is low confidence in the amount and coverage of
storms but high confidence that any storms that develop will
become severe. Many of the short term models and ensembles are
showing the greatest lift with the upper low will be moving in
around 9-10 pm. The low level jet will increase after 7 pm and
advect moisture to the northwest that the dryline should retreat
to somewhere between US 283 and K-23 corridors. Many of the CAMs
are struggling with initiating storms along the dryline until
after 10 pm and perhaps closer to midnight. Any storms that do
develop will have plentiful 0-6 km shear (>50 kts) and CAPE
(>1500 j/KG) that large to giant hail can be expected with any
storm along with strong winds and an isolated tornado. The storm
mode will most likely be briefly supercell and then quick
upscale growth into a squall line along the dry line. Time frame
of storms between US 283 to the US 281 corridors will be
between 10 pm and 3 am. With the way the setup is looking at
this point there is at least 30-40% chance we may not see much
if any storm activity at all given how many short term models
and CAMs are struggling to initiate convection. With the quick
movement of the dry air from west to east we should be done with
storm activity by 3 am.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Tuesday`s impacts will revolve around intense northwest winds,
expected on the backside of the slowly exiting cyclone. Followed
the strongest wind guidance or the 90%ile of the NBM Tuesday,
and high wind warning criteria is most likely on the highest
terrain along/west of US 83, in a mixed boundary layer beneath
the strongest jet cores aloft. Gusts to near 60 mph appear
probable, with gusts of 40-50 mph elsewhere. Of course, added
areas of blowing dust to the western CWA Tuesday. Cold advection
Tuesday looks very meager, and what there is will be masked by
NWly downslope, so afternoon temperatures will remain in the
70s. Maintained some pops for wraparound rain showers for the
northeast zones as NBM suggests, but much of this may remain
north of SW KS.

Much quieter weather Wednesday, and winds return to light
southerly beneath zonal flow aloft. Models are in sync with each
other showing a strong cold front passage around Thursday
morning. North winds will be strong Thursday morning, reducing
afternoon temperatures sharply to the upper 50s and lower 60s.
The first flirtation with frost/freeze potential will be Friday
morning, with NBM/MEX guidance suggesting sunrise temperatures
of 32-37 will be common. 00z GEFS probability of 2m T < 40 is
60-70%, of course focused on our coldest northwest zones both
Friday and Saturday mornings.

00z global models and most of their ensemble members support
another, stronger cold frontal passage Friday night/early
Saturday. 00z ECMWF is very wet with this front, but kept pops
near the modest low chance category per NBM, centered on
Saturday morning. 00z ECMWF 850 mb temperatures fall
as low as -1 to -2C midday Saturday, suggesting temperatures
will struggle to get to 50 Saturday afternoon (about 20 degrees
below normal). EPS 850 mb temperature anomalies are
impressively cold for late April (down to -10C), with more
freeze potential expected Sunday morning April 21st.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time pd. Winds
in general should stay 12 kts or less through 14Z Monday and
then we should see winds quickly increase to sustained 15-25 kts
with gusts to 30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro